Just read this @DanielBShapiro, which essentially asks “why can’t we all just get along” if a Biden administration decides to go back into the Iran nuclear deal. Sounds nice on its face but the details reveal at least three major fallacies. Thread. washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
First, if you accept premise the Iran deal was "good" for US/Israel in first 5 years, but then good for Iran once sunsets kicked in, you’d have to conclude the deal today is now "bad" for US/Israel. The first sunset has already kicked in (arms embargo). The second comes in 2023.
Iran won't agree to extend sunsets already bagged. Nor will they agree to extend future sunsets when offered sanctions relief up front. Going back into a deal that is already expiring & giving up all leverage up front should be added to the dictionary as a definition of insanity.
Notably, Biden hasn’t taken a position on the arms embargo. Nearly entire US House supported efforts to extend embargo despite Iran Deal letting it expire. Trump issued EO threatening sanctions against Russia/China. Iran says that EO violates deal. Silence on this is troubling.
Second, Shapiro recommends that after Biden goes back into the deal, US/Israel work together to counter Iran using all tools available. The reader should consider this: the Iran Deal locks up all our tools to counter Iran. So what is he even talking about?
Full compliance with the Iran deal would mean no more sanctions, no more regional rollback, no more pressure on Tehran across the board. That is quite literally the deal. How do you work to counter Iran with pressure when you’ve just agreed to relieve all pressure? Major fallacy.
Biden's interview with @tomfriedman suggested he would break @ABlinken campaign pledge not to grant Iran any terror, missile, human rights or other non-nuclear related sanctions relief. Terror/missile sanctions include Iran's central bank, financial sector and oil sector.
If Biden ruled out any sanctions relief that benefits entities designated for terrorism, missiles, human rights, etc - Shapiro's call for cooperation wouldn't ring hollow. Indeed, maintaining CBI, financial, oil & other non-nuclear sanctions on Iran would win bipartisan support.
Third, Shapiro & others like @ilangoldenberg say Biden can always re-impose US sanctions if he doesn’t get a better deal after going back into the now-expired Iran deal. This is the biggest deception of all - directly undermined by Biden's call to go back into the deal today.
Because the JCPOA left Iran’s nuclear capabilities intact, the regime has the same go-to response any time the US tries to re-impose sanctions: nuclear extortion. That’s their response to Trump today; it would be their response to Biden in weeks, months or years.
The JCPOA had one sunset that mattered: a time of Iran’s choosing. It’s a racket. You have to pay the racket or Iran enriches. So today, Iran’s escalating its enrichment to shake down the US & EU. Trump didn’t fold & Tehran is in dire straits. Biden says he wants to fold quickly.
If Biden's desperate to offer sanctions relief today to stop Iran's enrichment....and we know Iran would respond to any re-imposition of sanctions in the future by expanding enrichment just like today...there's only one conclusion to draw: Biden will NEVER re-impose sanctions.
Biden is proposing a never-ending Iranian shakedown of America that subsidizes IRGC terrorism, missiles & human rights abuse...AND leaving Iran with legitimized pathways to nuclear weapons to boot. So much for kumbaya, Ambassador. END
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