4. Avoid the Latest Fads 5. Consistency 6. Bucking the Trend 7. Pay No Attention to the Science of Wiggles (Charts) 8. Do Not Try to Predict Short-term Ups and Downs in the Market 9. Pulling the Flowers and Watering the Weeds 10. No Derivatives
My fav parts in the thread below. Comments in ( ) are mine.
1. Know the Facts (understanding your Companies well).
2. Diversify with Care (having a manageable # holdings so that you can track closely).
3. Accept Fluctuations (& Volatility).
4. Avoid the latest Fads (especially if you don't understand the Technology, and it's actual translation to Business & Shareholder benefits. Also be aware of the hype cycle).
5. Consistency (having a good consistent process that suits your goals/strengths, and improving it over time, not reacting/changing to every short term Market gyration).
6. Bucking the Trend (on being contrarian not for the sake of it, but when the facts align with your thesis and there's clear evidence that Market is temporarily incorrect).
8. Do Not Try to Predict Short-term Ups and Downs in the Market.
9. Pulling the Flowers and Watering the Weeds.
• • •
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Back on Feb 19th, no one could predict that the Market would go down 35% over the next month.
On March 23rd, no one could predict that the Market would go up 60% over the next 8-9 months.
Market levels at any time depends on the news, sentiment, Interest rates, Money supply, Money in/out flows between various assets, and actions of thousands of big institutions and millions of people in real-time based on the facts and a whole lot of noise.
1⃣ Selling good businesses too early
2⃣ Going down the Quality curve
3⃣ Waiting for a little lower price to buy
4⃣ Failing to consider overall market change and its impact
5⃣ Not experimenting enough in the portfolio
6⃣ Having a very large cash allocation
7⃣ Holding on to the non-performers for too long
8⃣ Thesis change, market view changes
9⃣ The need to be Contrarian
🔟Focusing on macro
I'm guilty of making most of these mistakes in the past.🤦♂️
Investing advice is very subjective as it depends a lot on the specific investor's goals, capabilities, time horizon, risk tolerance etc. but these are some great lessons for business focused long-term investors in individual stocks.
Reading articles from the actual period (instead of books written after he was already widely famous) provides more interesting details on how his investing process evolved over the decades..
->Pure Balancesheet & Valuation based investing(50s/60s)
-> Purchases based on Intangibles/Brands & Moats (70s)
The Current Investing Landscape (article from Oct 2018, further elevated now)
Some good quotes
"Investment theses were formulated that described only the quality of the business and its growth prospects, but made no mention of the price and why it offered an attractive return."