QUICK THREAD: I'm seeing this chart go semi-viral among people saying "look! schools and child cares are actually really risky!" So I think we should talk about what we're talking about -- which is that, yet again, definitions & denominators really matter. 
First, let's talk definitions.
As @ByMoriah points out "in this data=2+ coronavirus cases in two weeks in the same setting"
And the data page also notes "The school building category includes all staff and students involved in any activities in the building in and out of...
As @ByMoriah points out "in this data=2+ coronavirus cases in two weeks in the same setting"
And the data page also notes "The school building category includes all staff and students involved in any activities in the building in and out of...
...the classroom, such as community services and sports."
So, to recap: It's a weird definition to begin with, most states use 2+ reasonably epidemiologically-linked cases (e.g. a teacher & student in the same class)-- AND "school building" is broad.
coronavirus.dc.gov/sites/default/…
So, to recap: It's a weird definition to begin with, most states use 2+ reasonably epidemiologically-linked cases (e.g. a teacher & student in the same class)-- AND "school building" is broad.
coronavirus.dc.gov/sites/default/…
Now, denominators.
There are around 500 licensed child care programs in D.C. The fact that there were only 15 outbreaks throughout Aug., Sept., Oct., and Nov. is in my estimation evidence for how LOW risk those settings are!
Meanwhile, the % of colleges with outbreaks is high!
There are around 500 licensed child care programs in D.C. The fact that there were only 15 outbreaks throughout Aug., Sept., Oct., and Nov. is in my estimation evidence for how LOW risk those settings are!
Meanwhile, the % of colleges with outbreaks is high!
The other part of the denominator piece is that the aggregate number is just pretty low. D.C. has a population of 684,000 people and a ton of people regularly flowing in and out from MD, VA and elsewhere. A state like CO, pop. 5.7 million, had 1,217 outbreaks over those months.
Population-adjusted to Colorado, D.C. would've had 915 outbreaks, a good third lower.
Now that might be a data issue on D.C.'s part, might be context-driven, but either way, crowing about "schools are #2!" is focusing on close-together rungs on a small ladder.
Now that might be a data issue on D.C.'s part, might be context-driven, but either way, crowing about "schools are #2!" is focusing on close-together rungs on a small ladder.
At any rate, all this to say: Confirmation bias is a real thing. There's no question I suffer from it too. But it doesn't take long to realize that this particular D.C. chart and its flashy percent column simply isn't useful in drawing any new conclusions.
OUTBREAK = 2+ cases in 2 weeks in the same setting (realized my original tweet wasn't super-clear)
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