Here's the most 2020 way the next few days can play out... 1. Boris Johnson goes to Brussels and "beats" the EU. He returns clutching the (thin) deal that couldn't be done. "Hail the conquering hero" adulation from RW press. 2. Labour whips in favour of a deal and co-owns Brexit.
First doses of the vaccine distributed (genuine good news story) and the impossible Brexit deal secured, all in the space of 48 hours or so.
There won't be space in these isles for Boris Johnson's ego after that, especially when the pet media are finished with him.
🤦♂️🤮
Come 1 January most people will have moved on, distracted by Christmas bubbling and arrangements for celebrating or not celebrating the New Year.
So when Brexit problems hit, they will be shrugged off with a "temporary teething troubles". And enough people will buy that lie.
Especially if Labour, having only just voted for Brexit, decide it's electorally prudent for the party not to emphasise those problems too much, eg by focusing VERY hard on domestic issues like in the run-up to the 2017 GE.
Thus, the final betrayal of Remainers will be complete.
We will have destroyed the UK economy, its reputation and standing in the world for the pleasure of a minority (52% of those who voted in the referendum) with not one single atom of an attempt to find a more inclusive way out of Brexit that would encompass everyone else.
It's like the winners of a war sowing every square inch of their conquered land with plutonium so that nothing can live on it for thousands of years. After making no provision for the population they just beat.
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"Singapore, UK ink free trade deal with eye on digital economy talks in 2021"
Liz Truss managed to find the "Copy" button again...
Expect a flurry of jingoistic self-congratulation for something that "largely replicates" the EU's FTA. (What's missing?) straitstimes.com/business/econo…
"UK strikes Singapore and Vietnam trade deals, start of new era of trade with Asia"
More detail, wrapped in cloying self-congratulatory guff, on the UK Government website.
(Headline says "start of a new era". Body text emphasises this preserves the benefits of previous FTA.)
Don't get me wrong. It's good news they're rolled over. Better that than the alternative!
But this is neither an epic demonstration of Britain's mighty trade negotiation prowess, nor is it the "start" of anything new.
Brexit stockpile ✅ (thanks to an elusive delivery slot from Tesco).
It won't be gourmet fare - no Come Dine With Me - or particularly healthy, but we won't have to shop for food at the very least during January, if chaos hits.
(It's all long-life stuff we would use anyway...)
Lots of pasta, tinned tomatoes and corn, frozen bags of vegetables, various sauces, etc. Think bland, but liveable...
If there are no issues, we can whittle stocks down over the course of 2021 around regular shops.
And if food prices go up sharply, we've saved money - even if there are no shortages in the end.
For all their wild boasts about the stellar future that awaits the UK outside of the EU, Brexiters have gone very, very quiet about the opportunity to reduce red tape (which was a key strand of the argument at referendum time).
Red tape grows under Brexit like Japanese knotweed!
In fact, about the only Tory MP I could find still tooting the red tape pipe in recent months was Liz Truss, and even then only in the context of trade agreements, not Brexit itself.
Ok, ok, there are also a few *idiots* exalting Brexit as a red tape destroyer...
Step a few months further back in time, and the issue of red tape becomes pretty much a one woman show. And that woman is Liz Truss...
Rarely has a country been so poorly served by their global representative, even in a VERY crowded field.
Seems a good time to bring up something I've talked about before:
- I want Brexit to succeed.
- I fully expect Brexit to fail.
Those two statements are NOT incompatible. Everything I have learned about Brexit tells me it WILL be a disaster.
But of course I *want* it not to be!
Why would I not? I live in the UK. Many of my friends and family do too. Others live in the EU. We're all going to get hurt by Brexit, just like you will.
Only an idiot would put sticking one in the eye of Leavers so far up the priority list they'd cheer on a Brexit disaster.
That's not the same as staying silent. Not by a country mile.
Each failure of Brexit should be highlighted, as loudly as possible. Those who brought about this disaster must own it. Nobody should be under any illusion about what happened.
The EU have just said they're willing to continue Brexit negotiations in 2021 on their existing negotiating mandate, even after the no-deal situation comes into force.
(From their POV this is the most logical move. They know no-deal makes the UK's weak hand much, much weaker.)
Tories might see the prospect positively: 1. All but the most headbangery know that *eventually* there has to be a deal 2. No-deal delivers the diamond-hard Brexit chum the right-wing sharks are desperate for 3. Every small gain in a deal is a "win" because starting from NOTHING
Of course it crashes the economy and the pound, throws businesses further under a heavier bus, and forces firms to activate every worst-case contingency plan.
But all that may be seen as secondary to the chance to give the troublesome wing of the Tory party the no-deal it lusts.
Analysis of the impossible Brexit choice facing Labour [THREAD]
Labour's dilemma stems from its past stances on the matter, and was already set in stone when Keir Starmer took over.
Jeremy Corbyn was leader every second from before the referendum until after the UK left the EU.
Boris Johnson's deal will be damaging for the UK. No doubt about it. It will fail to meet Labour's 6 tests. It will harm the life chances of the entire population and impoverish millions.
But no-deal is indisputably even worse.
So what happens if there's a vote on a deal?
There will only ever be two options. Limited time and political maths mean there won't ever be a *different* deal instead.
So the choices are:
- vote for the deal: no matter what excuses or qualifiers are uttered beforehand, the Tories & RW media will make Labour co-own Brexit.