Seems a good time to bring up something I've talked about before:
- I want Brexit to succeed.
- I fully expect Brexit to fail.
Those two statements are NOT incompatible. Everything I have learned about Brexit tells me it WILL be a disaster.
But of course I *want* it not to be!
Why would I not? I live in the UK. Many of my friends and family do too. Others live in the EU. We're all going to get hurt by Brexit, just like you will.
Only an idiot would put sticking one in the eye of Leavers so far up the priority list they'd cheer on a Brexit disaster.
That's not the same as staying silent. Not by a country mile.
Each failure of Brexit should be highlighted, as loudly as possible. Those who brought about this disaster must own it. Nobody should be under any illusion about what happened.
Next time, experts may have a chance.
In short: it's the difference between reporting a car crash, and applauding one.
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THREAD: Here are the essential points from the EU's time-limited, limited effect no-deal Brexit mitigation offer.
(Most concessions are unilateral measures it will implement. Some require UK cooperation - not clear what happens if we refuse to do so!) ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
Air travel
"Unless there is a contingency measure in place on air transport at the end of the transition period, air traffic between the EU and the United Kingdom will be interrupted."
The EU is proposing 6 months of reciprocal concessions to keep (most) planes flying.
However, they're not offering any concessions on airline ownership requirements, so BA for one may come unstuck here (depending on how its restructured shareholding is going). Its message: you already had plenty of time to prepare, including a grace period.
In the absence of any deal, the EU has proposed a series of limited-time, limited-effect mitigations to avoid the full chaos of no-deal Brexit. Lots to digest, but worth digging into... not least because they make clear how hard life without them would be. ec.europa.eu/info/publicati…
They make it crystal clear that, if the UK doesn't return to the negotiating table sharpish in the new year, we are bang out of luck. Planes will stop, hauliers won't be able to transport goods, etc.
Cards? Ha. We'll only be able to dream of the days we still had *any* to play!
Reading through them, it's warming that *someone* has our backs (even if it is also to protect the EU's own interests), because our own government has clearly abandoned us long ago.
"Singapore, UK ink free trade deal with eye on digital economy talks in 2021"
Liz Truss managed to find the "Copy" button again...
Expect a flurry of jingoistic self-congratulation for something that "largely replicates" the EU's FTA. (What's missing?) straitstimes.com/business/econo…
"UK strikes Singapore and Vietnam trade deals, start of new era of trade with Asia"
More detail, wrapped in cloying self-congratulatory guff, on the UK Government website.
(Headline says "start of a new era". Body text emphasises this preserves the benefits of previous FTA.)
Don't get me wrong. It's good news they're rolled over. Better that than the alternative!
But this is neither an epic demonstration of Britain's mighty trade negotiation prowess, nor is it the "start" of anything new.
Brexit stockpile ✅ (thanks to an elusive delivery slot from Tesco).
It won't be gourmet fare - no Come Dine With Me - or particularly healthy, but we won't have to shop for food at the very least during January, if chaos hits.
(It's all long-life stuff we would use anyway...)
Lots of pasta, tinned tomatoes and corn, frozen bags of vegetables, various sauces, etc. Think bland, but liveable...
If there are no issues, we can whittle stocks down over the course of 2021 around regular shops.
And if food prices go up sharply, we've saved money - even if there are no shortages in the end.
For all their wild boasts about the stellar future that awaits the UK outside of the EU, Brexiters have gone very, very quiet about the opportunity to reduce red tape (which was a key strand of the argument at referendum time).
Red tape grows under Brexit like Japanese knotweed!
In fact, about the only Tory MP I could find still tooting the red tape pipe in recent months was Liz Truss, and even then only in the context of trade agreements, not Brexit itself.
Ok, ok, there are also a few *idiots* exalting Brexit as a red tape destroyer...
Step a few months further back in time, and the issue of red tape becomes pretty much a one woman show. And that woman is Liz Truss...
Rarely has a country been so poorly served by their global representative, even in a VERY crowded field.
The EU have just said they're willing to continue Brexit negotiations in 2021 on their existing negotiating mandate, even after the no-deal situation comes into force.
(From their POV this is the most logical move. They know no-deal makes the UK's weak hand much, much weaker.)
Tories might see the prospect positively: 1. All but the most headbangery know that *eventually* there has to be a deal 2. No-deal delivers the diamond-hard Brexit chum the right-wing sharks are desperate for 3. Every small gain in a deal is a "win" because starting from NOTHING
Of course it crashes the economy and the pound, throws businesses further under a heavier bus, and forces firms to activate every worst-case contingency plan.
But all that may be seen as secondary to the chance to give the troublesome wing of the Tory party the no-deal it lusts.