Brexit stockpile ✅ (thanks to an elusive delivery slot from Tesco).

It won't be gourmet fare - no Come Dine With Me - or particularly healthy, but we won't have to shop for food at the very least during January, if chaos hits.

(It's all long-life stuff we would use anyway...)
Lots of pasta, tinned tomatoes and corn, frozen bags of vegetables, various sauces, etc. Think bland, but liveable...

If there are no issues, we can whittle stocks down over the course of 2021 around regular shops.
And if food prices go up sharply, we've saved money - even if there are no shortages in the end.

Win-win.
NOTE: preparation is not anticipation.

(I believe there will be *specific* food shortages, ie some products will vanish from shelves for a while. I don't think there will be *general* food shortages, as in "not enough food", but it seemed prudent to hedge just in case...)

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More from @uk_domain_names

14 Dec
London and some nearby areas are going into Tier 3. Pubs, cafes, restaurants etc. must close except for take-aways, and hotels and B&Bs must shut too.

This will be devastating at the most valuable time of year. But it's the direct consequence of too-weak restrictions earlier.
Because he's announced it today but it's only coming into effect on Wednesday, you can expect the usual wild excesses tonight and tomorrow from the subset of people who always seem to treat this sort of thing as the last day before the asteroid hits.
Oddity: London is so dangerous now that it requires Tier 3 restrictions, but from 23-27 December it will be perfectly fine for Londoners to spread their wings all over the UK (and for people to flock to London to visit people there).

And then the virus comes off its Xmas break.
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
The Express currently has *23* Brexit stories on the front page of its online edition.

Every one of them is a lie, distortion or fabrication.

It is not really *that* surprising that their readers have misunderstood the whole Brexit thing...
Since the referendum (and in the run-up to it too) anyone relying on the Express for "news" will have been exposed to thousands, maybe tens of thousands of stories about Brexit.

These paint a *consistently misleading* picture, ie they're wrong, but build on each other.
How can one expect people to be informed when faced with such a barrage of brainwashing?

But there is one thing the Express might be able to twist, but it won't be able to hide: shortages in the shops.

January 2021 will be a steep learning curve!
Read 8 tweets
12 Dec
CityAM takes a leaf out of the Express...

Headline: "London retains finance jobs as Brexit fails to deliver blow to the City"

Body: "Financial firms in London have already moved around 7,500 jobs and £1 trillion in assets to new EU hubs as a result" cityam.com/london-retains…
The argument being made is that because firms hired more staff in the last 4 years than have been moved overseas, Brexit wasn't an issue.

But that's like saying that a bath with the tap running and a leaky plug isn't losing any water.

If it wasn't leaking it would be fuller.
It's a very Tory way of counting...

"Look, everyone... 20,000 new nurses. Aren't we fantastic?"

"But 18,000 nurses quit, so..."

"Shh. You're spoiling my vibe."
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
It will take the EU a surprisingly short time to recover from Brexit.

1) They have already (in effect) replaced our trade since the referendum.
2) Their borders are ready.
3) Each of our 27 competitors has the might of the EU behind them.
4) More jobs and capital will flee. Image
5) They will have significantly more bandwidth to devote to other issues (eg trade deals: 100% of their negotiators will be able to get back to their primary role of signing up new partners)
6) We have sabotaged our competitiveness further by axing VAT-free shopping for tourists
7) Hauliers who aren't already avoiding the UK will see the chaos at the ports, and give us a wide berth
8) The rapid switch to electric cars forces all auto manufacturers to completely rejig their plants *anyway* so more will take the opportunity to leave

And so on...
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec
The UK government is abolishing VAT refunds for foreign tourists.

"The Government says removing the tax break will save the taxpayer more than £1billion a year"

If it saves £1 billion, the tourists are spending at least £5 billion less in the UK!

thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/art…
Except... that's not the full picture. Not even close.

You see, tourists don't get ALL the VAT back. So they will have spent more than £5 billion to get £1 billion in refunds.

They'll also have shelled out on plane tickets, hotels, restaurants, shows, museums, attractions etc.
Then there's transport, guided tours, incidental purchases that aren't covered by the VAT refund scheme, etc. etc.

What the UK Government has done is invent a policy that targets the wealthiest tier of tourists, and turned them away from the UK.

Is it because they're foreign?
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec
THREAD: Here are the essential points from the EU's time-limited, limited effect no-deal Brexit mitigation offer.

(Most concessions are unilateral measures it will implement. Some require UK cooperation - not clear what happens if we refuse to do so!)
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
Air travel
"Unless there is a contingency measure in place on air transport at the end of the transition period, air traffic between the EU and the United Kingdom will be interrupted."

The EU is proposing 6 months of reciprocal concessions to keep (most) planes flying.
However, they're not offering any concessions on airline ownership requirements, so BA for one may come unstuck here (depending on how its restructured shareholding is going). Its message: you already had plenty of time to prepare, including a grace period.
Read 9 tweets

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