THREAD: The news of the pending appointment of retired Gen. Lloyd Austin as SecDef has provoked a complex reaction. Here is a thread of @monkeycageblog posts summarizing relevant security studies and civil-military research (hello spring syllabi!). 1/
To start with, the appointment would be a historic first, if not the one many were expecting. The military is in the midst of a reckoning on race; here, @jaylyall_red5 writes about why diversity in the military is important to its mission. 2/ washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
But another retired general requiring a waiver to serve in civilian role has drawn criticism from civil-military scholars, esp after erosion of civilian control of the military in the Trump years. See Dec '16 @PeteWhitePolSci piece on Trump and generals 3/ washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
There's also the issue of military endorsements, a trend that started long before Trump but @jimgolby has written about how Trump and others try to use the military for partisan political benefit. 6/ washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
Of course there are exceptions: @ahfdc wrote that Trump's assertion of control over the Syria pullout actually reinforced the norm of civilian control--the president has the "right to be wrong," as Peter Feaver has written. 10/ washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
And circling back to the Mattis precedent, @m_robinson771 wrote about how Mattis' tenure and resignation further politicized the military and especially the role of retired military officers. 11/ washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
Many more issues and too many civil-military pieces to list here (hoping a @monkeycageblog topic guide on this soon!). But these & other scholars have written lots more, all grounded in research. One takeaway: Trump did damage & SecDef appt must be seen in that light. 13/
Of course, none of this touches substance of Austin's views or alternative candidates, e.g. on confronting China or great power competition. Or what a woman would mean in this role. Or views of D's as weak on natsec. But those are for another thread. 14/14
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Some last thoughts on a day of many elite signals (Esper press conference, Mattis letter, Milley, etc.) and now this from Senate Republicans, which may not seem like much but is more than meets the eye. 1/
Here are my earlier thoughts on why Esper's press conference mattered (and notably, I saw a clip on local news tonight, still an important source for many Americans): 2/ washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
His action to reverse order to send troops back to base after meeting at White House does weaken the effect of his remarks but does not fully undercut them -- and the @politico report suggests they did influence Senate R's. 3/
Some undercaffeinated thoughts: Esper's interview last night was ridiculous, but today, it is still an important moment that a SecDef is standing at the Pentagon podium delivering remarks (something all too rare in this administration in normal times). 1/
As I wrote last night it is very, very rare for top officials to resign in protest and reasons to think there are structural factors making it even more rare today. 2/
Speaking out in opposition to president's policy also rare (more often done in print, and anonymously, not on camera). 3/
So happy this review essay w/ @dshyde on regime type and IR is on #FirstView@IntOrgJournal. We've been working on this for a long, long time. Here’s a thread on where it came from, what we hope it does, and some still-forming thoughts on how it applies to the US-Iran crisis. 1/
We started from the premise that there was lots of new work on autocracies in IR (AIR) and revitalized interest in democracies in IR (DIR), but there wasn’t that much conversation between these literatures. 2/
And neither one was integrated into debates over international structure, norms, or economic trends (books by @SevaUT, @ConradCourtenay & @EmilyHRitter are exceptions!). 3/
Prompted by this @nytimes article, a couple thoughts on the politics of Trump's decision...tl;dr: yes, he probably had more leeway to hold off because he's a Republican. Here's some research: 1/n nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/…
First, @mchorowitz & Levandusky show in @The_JOP that presidents can avoid paying audience costs (i.e. can back down without a political penalty), with party playing less of a role since the president can cite new information. 2/ jstor.org/stable/10.1017…
Some under-caffeinated thoughts on the news that Trump approved a strike on Iran and then pulled back (which he’s now confirmed). Thanks to @dov_levin for this tweet about my @IntOrgJournal piece on why experienced leadership matters. 1/n
[Caveat: we’ve had a lot of good @monkeycageblog analysis on Iran this week but these thoughts/errors are just me and I don’t mean to put words in anyone’s mouths.] 2/n
I’m not sure how Iran fits setup of my article, because Trump doesn’t seem to want war. But the (wonky) reason I started writing it, long before Trump, is relevant given Trump administration divisions: we still don’t know much about how psychological bias works in groups. 3/n