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Prompted by this @nytimes article, a couple thoughts on the politics of Trump's decision...tl;dr: yes, he probably had more leeway to hold off because he's a Republican. Here's some research: 1/n nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/…
First, @mchorowitz & Levandusky show in @The_JOP that presidents can avoid paying audience costs (i.e. can back down without a political penalty), with party playing less of a role since the president can cite new information. 2/ jstor.org/stable/10.1017…
But much other work shows differences in party "brands." E.g., Trager & Vavreck @AJPS_Editor show D's seen as dovish so incentive to fight. 3/ onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
For making peace ("Nixon-to-China"), Mattes & @jessicapweeks show @AJPS_Editor that hawks have an advantage over doves, politically. 4/ onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aj…
Interestingly, they argue hawk/dove divide is independent of party, and find separate hawk/dove effect. This piece on divisions within R's over Trump's action shows there's usually a hawk/dove spectrum within both parties (also true of D's!). 5/ nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/…
But in this @World_Pol article, @sekreps @KSchultz3580 & I argue there's also a partisan dimension, with D's paying a "Ratification Premium" because of party brand (too dovish), when making arms control agreements. Remind anyone of the Iran Deal? 6/ cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Finally, circling back to Trump's decision, my recent JCR on the politics of advisers in decisions to use force shows D's have incentives to listen to their most hawkish advisers; R's their most dovish. 7/ journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Hawks still matter for R presidents, but more leeway. If Trump heard Tucker saying it would harm his reelection, that likely resonated. Also shows big spectrum of advisers in any administration; maybe wider in this one, but not new. See @johngansjr: 8/ foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/bol…
Bottom line: whatever else is going on, Trump had more leeway here, politically speaking, as a Republican. END
