Big news! Our systematic review and meta-analysis of the age stratified IFR of COVID-19 with @BillHanage, Andy Levin, and others has now been published in the European Journal of Epidemiology
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
The key figure from the paper - your risk of death from COVID-19 goes up exponentially by age:
1 in 50,000 at age 20
1 in 1,500 at age 40
1 in 130 at age 60
1 in 12 at age 80
1 in 50,000 at age 20
1 in 1,500 at age 40
1 in 130 at age 60
1 in 12 at age 80
The other big thing we found was that the age breakdown of places almost entirely explained (~90%) the observed variance in population IFR
In other words, the population IFR of a place largely boils down to who gets infected. In Northern Italy, lots of old people got COVID-19, so the IFR was much higher than in Iceland, where it was mostly younger people!
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