Merkel speaking to Bundestag about #Brexit Insistent on not compromising the single market to get a deal. Says not sure whether clarity will emerge by tomorrow ie after this evening’s Johnson/von der Leyen dinner in Brussels /1
Important to see here there are no serious Franco/German splits over the current impasse in negotiations. True: Merkel possibly keener on deal being done than Macron. He still hopes France can wrest some business benefits out of ‘a bad situation’. Hopes too that .. /2
His tough stance on fish and public threat of using a veto on a deal that’s ‘not in France’s long term interest’ will play well for him at home politically BUT EU countries all pretty much United behind Barnier’s declaration not to ‘sacrifice the future for the present’ /3
Aka ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’. This means tonight’s dinner is far more complex than “OK Boris, we’ll give you a clear victory on fish” “Fine Ursula, here’s your level playing field”. The clash of ideologies clear from the start is still very much present ie /4
The government determination to protect its post Brexit sovereignty - not wanting to sign up to another rule book with EU. While on EU side there’s an obsession with protecting the single market a) in practical terms from what it sees as potentially unfair competition from UK /5
vis a vis EU businesses and b) in terms of reputation. Brussels thinks weakening single market rules for a deal with U.K. will be damaging in terms of global reputation and would weaken its hand in future trade deals with other countries /6
Conclusion: deal still possible but no deal very much still on the table tonight along with dinner /7
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