Thread by @ProfLWiley

Here’s the text of Trump’s “America First” vaccine EO. I read it to direct admin officials to allocate vaccines *owned by the federal govt* for use on US residents prior to distributing any US federally-owned doses to other countries. whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

I don’t read it to invoke export controls to prohibit vaccines produced in the US (eg Pfizer’s Michigan facility) from being sold to other purchasers.

I don’t read it to invoke the Defense Production Act or any other possible authority to “jump the line” of contracts Pfizer has entered into with other countries.

The EO does nothing that will directly increase the number of doses the USG will own. The rhetoric (with bark worse than bite) was probably intended to indirectly influence ongoing negotiations with Pfizer re: an additional purchase agreement & fuel nationalist fervor.

To clarify: Pfizer has manufacturing capacity in Europe as well as the US. Reports indicate the first shipment of Pfizer doses for use in the US are coming from its plant in Belgium, not Michigan.

I haven’t seen anything public indicating what percentage of global Covid vaccine doses we can expect to be produced within the US vs elsewhere, but my guess is that it could be quite small. US residents may be dependent on other countries to refrain from exerting export controls

More importantly, vaccine nationalism harms everyone. An effective global health strategy for sustainable suppression of covid transmission & robust economic recover requires international cooperation & mutual support.

TLDR: What the President has indicated he would like to do is very, very bad. Yesterday’s EO isn’t as big a step toward doing those things as it could have been. But he could still take additional steps in the coming weeks.

Things to watch for:
An additional EO expressly invoking authority over vaccine contracts/orders under the Defense Production Act & delegating it to the HHS or DOD Secretary.

Things to watch for: guidance from CDC indicating that states & other recipients of vaccine doses should include citizenship/immigration status as a criteria for vaccine allocation.

Things to watch for: guidance from HHS Secretary interpreting EUA to prohibit state &/or employer vax requirements.

Things to watch for: a temporary rule from FEMA or other agency relying on previously delegated DPA authority to institute export controls for vaccine doses/related supplies.