Good afternoon, Niagara. Since today is Wednesday, and that is the day a host of weekly #COVID metrics are updated, here is your pandemic snapshot. Pls. note, Wednesday snapshots will typically be more in-depth than other days. (thread)
As always, let's start with the basics: 20 new cases confirmed today, which is in line with the region's recent infection rate. Although given the recent days of over 30 cases, we have to watch over the next week to see how this will evolve.

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
On the plus side, we have yet to report any #COVID19 related deaths this week. However, hospitalizations are up with @niagarahealth no reporting 14 patients at the St. Catharines hospital, setting a new second wave high.
Part of the reason we keep an eye on basic data like case counts is because as the infection rate rises, even if most of those infections are in younger, healthy people, it increases the risk of exposure to the most vulnerable. And we have seen that happen in the last two months.
And as this chart clearly shows, the infection rate now is much higher than it was in the spring, and most experts believe it will get worse as we head into the heart of winter.

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Another way to look at this, is the rolling daily average. In this chart, we exclude outbreak cases to give a clearer picture of the daily number of cases in the community. Keep in mind, it is an average, not a daily total.
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
Week by week, however, the story of the second wave had not changed. Cases are driven by infections in younger adults. (Although today is the first day in a long time that the bulk of daily cases is in older demographics)

Niagara COVID-19 case by age public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
Ok, so before we dive into the key metrics the province has specific measurements for that determine what #COVID19 restriction a region is in, I want to point to a couple of metrics that don't get a lot of attention but have played a key role in keeping Niagara in orange alert.
Although both @NRPublicHealth and @niagarahealth are under increasing pressure to contact trace and treat folks as the infection rate has risen, both agencies capacities (contact tracings, total beds, ICU beds) remain in the green.
This means that, despite the increased caseload, neither agency is overwhelmed yet. One of the reasons to tamp down infections is to prevent them from being swamped. The situation is worsening, but so far, these indicators are in the green, although in some cases on the edge.
For instance, the danger threshold for ICU occupancy at @niagarahealth is 90%. Right now, they are at 85.9% occupancy.
Some context: Niagara COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations rise again stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r… via @StCatStandard
There are 3 key metrics you should watch because they have hard targets and are used in conjunction to determine if a region moves into another alert zone: the reproductive number, test positivity and cases per 100,000. The following charts measure Niagara against these markers.
First up is the reproductive number - the approx. number of people a single #COVID19 person can infect. Niagara continues to dance just above the red zone threshold:

Niagara COVID-19 reproductive rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
Niagara's cases per 100,000, however, is firmly in orange alert.

Niagara COVID-19: Cases per 100,000 public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
As is Niagara's test positivity rate, which is actually closer to yellow than orange's max threshold, the region's only metric that is this low:

Niagara COVID-19: positivity rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Of course, the big news today is that Health Canada has approved the first #COVID19 vaccine for use, that being the Pzifer vaccine:

stcatharinesstandard.ca/ts/politics/fe…
There remain a number of questions about when/who in Niagara will be first to get the vaccine. The province is targeting the most vulnerable first, (LTC residents and health care workers and essential caregivers.) But there are some challenges given the nature of the drug.
It has specific, super cool storage requirements and may be vulnerable to being move around too much, so right now it seems people will have to go to a vaccination site, rather than the Pzifer shot being brought to LTC homes.
So not all LTC residents can travel to a site right now.
That said, @mustafahirji estimates that if distributed by population in Ontario, Niagara could receive around 3,000 doses in this first delivery - which is enough to inoculate the region's LTC population.
As we learn more about the vaccination rollouts, and what that means for Niagara, we will update you.

Watch for more updates in @StCatStandard later today.

Be safe, be smart and, as always, be kind.

-30-

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More from @GrantRants

10 Dec
NEW: Niagara Fall's mayor @jimdiodati pocket dialled this reporter's voicemail, and can be heard expressing his displeasure at being fact-checked about his #COVID19 claims, including saying restaurant staff will do something awful food I order as a result

stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r…
For context, Mr. Diodati is just the latest in a long string of politicians in Niagara whose unguarded comments (and sometimes very public) attacked @StCatStandard and its reporters.
In 2015, Diodati joined a group of politicians who signed a document organized by former St. Catharines MP Rick Dykstra that made false claims about the paper, including that we manufactured the news and intimidated politicians. The memo was then sent to our owners.
Read 8 tweets
9 Dec
If this time table is accurate, it is very aggressive and hinges on a number of impossible-to-know-for-sure factors, including the approval of other vaccines (Moderna and Astrazeneca etc) and a robust supply chain and programs that operate smoothly.
For context, most experts have been looking to the last quarter of 2021 for a full public vaccination program to rollout, as a best-case scenario.
For context, the AstraZenca vaccine has yet to get to the finish line of approvals and it is not clear yet when that might happen.

Bottom line is while we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, we have a road to travel yet before we get there.

cbc.ca/news/health/co…
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec
Here is your #COVID19 snapshot Niagara:

For the second time in three days, the number of new cases is over 30. 34 for today, 20 yesterday, 39 on Saturday. Dec 3 also saw 30 cases. (thread)

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
Why does this matter? Because Niagara has been holding the line in the low-mid20s for some time, and the past the region's overall infection rate tends to creep up as it did in the early fall gradually rising from single digits to low teens, to low 20s to mid-low 20s.
So one of the things to watch for in the next two weeks as we approach the holidays, is if daily case count creeps consistently over 30 and stays there.
Read 9 tweets
17 Nov
A few other things worth noting here about the @610CKTB by Matt Holmes with Niagara Falls mayor @jimdiodati worth further fact checking. (fact check thread)
During the interview @jimdiodati claims there are "conflicting" orders between @mustafahirji from @NRPublicHealth and the provincial government's orange alert restrictions.
This is false.
As we reported in @StCatStandard, Hirji's order didn't impact occupancy numbers for restaurants/bars set by the now-previous version of the province's code yellow. What it did was require patrons to confirm they were eating with their immediate house hold or essential contacts.
Read 20 tweets
15 Nov
Yesterday we reported that in his call to action to fight #COVID19 St. Catharines mayor @WSendzik misrepresented how/where the virus is spreading. It turns out Niagara Falls mayor @jimdiodati has also made a misleading comment re: the pandemic and restaurants. (FactCheck thread)
In commentary on his Facebook page largely about Costco, Mayor Diodati talks about his view of the new #COVID19 measures imposed on Niagara restaurants: Image
Like Sendzik, Diodati is making a blanket comment about measures at restaurants to say further measures are unfair and will cause economic harm (certain the last part is true).

But the specific claim about the success of the pre-Saturday, pre-orange alert measures is misleading
Read 13 tweets
10 Nov
.@WSendzik is calling for rigorous enforcement of #COVID19 bylaws in bars and restaurants, rather than more restrictions. Says the public will "hear from the media in a headline" bars/restaurants are unsafe and "kill them." and "cautions" PH their coms have to be "spot on."
The claim that news headlines are "killing" businesses is, at best, misleading. We are reporting the #COVID19, where cases are coming from, and what public health is doing. If cases are being generated by gatherings at a bar, or a picnic or house parties, we will report it.
St. Catharines councillor George Darte says "Education is done. It's time to do something. It's time to take action," about #COVID19 enforcement
Read 4 tweets

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