Thread by @GrantRants

Good afternoon, Niagara. Since today is Wednesday, and that is the day a host of weekly #COVID metrics are updated, here is your pandemic snapshot. Pls. note, Wednesday snapshots will typically be more in-depth than other days. (thread)

As always, let's start with the basics: 20 new cases confirmed today, which is in line with the region's recent infection rate. Although given the recent days of over 30 cases, we have to watch over the next week to see how this will evolve.

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

On the plus side, we have yet to report any #COVID19 related deaths this week. However, hospitalizations are up with @niagarahealth no reporting 14 patients at the St. Catharines hospital, setting a new second wave high.

Part of the reason we keep an eye on basic data like case counts is because as the infection rate rises, even if most of those infections are in younger, healthy people, it increases the risk of exposure to the most vulnerable. And we have seen that happen in the last two months.

And as this chart clearly shows, the infection rate now is much higher than it was in the spring, and most experts believe it will get worse as we head into the heart of winter.

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Another way to look at this, is the rolling daily average. In this chart, we exclude outbreak cases to give a clearer picture of the daily number of cases in the community. Keep in mind, it is an average, not a daily total.
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Week by week, however, the story of the second wave had not changed. Cases are driven by infections in younger adults. (Although today is the first day in a long time that the bulk of daily cases is in older demographics)

Niagara COVID-19 case by age public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Ok, so before we dive into the key metrics the province has specific measurements for that determine what #COVID19 restriction a region is in, I want to point to a couple of metrics that don't get a lot of attention but have played a key role in keeping Niagara in orange alert.

Although both @NRPublicHealth and @niagarahealth are under increasing pressure to contact trace and treat folks as the infection rate has risen, both agencies capacities (contact tracings, total beds, ICU beds) remain in the green.

This means that, despite the increased caseload, neither agency is overwhelmed yet. One of the reasons to tamp down infections is to prevent them from being swamped. The situation is worsening, but so far, these indicators are in the green, although in some cases on the edge.

For instance, the danger threshold for ICU occupancy at @niagarahealth is 90%. Right now, they are at 85.9% occupancy.

Some context: Niagara COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations rise again stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r… via @StCatStandard

There are 3 key metrics you should watch because they have hard targets and are used in conjunction to determine if a region moves into another alert zone: the reproductive number, test positivity and cases per 100,000. The following charts measure Niagara against these markers.

First up is the reproductive number - the approx. number of people a single #COVID19 person can infect. Niagara continues to dance just above the red zone threshold:

Niagara COVID-19 reproductive rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Niagara's cases per 100,000, however, is firmly in orange alert.

Niagara COVID-19: Cases per 100,000 public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

As is Niagara's test positivity rate, which is actually closer to yellow than orange's max threshold, the region's only metric that is this low:

Niagara COVID-19: positivity rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Of course, the big news today is that Health Canada has approved the first #COVID19 vaccine for use, that being the Pzifer vaccine:

stcatharinesstandard.ca/ts/politics/fe…

There remain a number of questions about when/who in Niagara will be first to get the vaccine. The province is targeting the most vulnerable first, (LTC residents and health care workers and essential caregivers.) But there are some challenges given the nature of the drug.

It has specific, super cool storage requirements and may be vulnerable to being move around too much, so right now it seems people will have to go to a vaccination site, rather than the Pzifer shot being brought to LTC homes.

So not all LTC residents can travel to a site right now.
That said, @mustafahirji estimates that if distributed by population in Ontario, Niagara could receive around 3,000 doses in this first delivery - which is enough to inoculate the region's LTC population.

As we learn more about the vaccination rollouts, and what that means for Niagara, we will update you.

Watch for more updates in @StCatStandard later today.

Be safe, be smart and, as always, be kind.

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