Thread by @Noahpinion

1/Today's @bopinion post is about technology and inequality.

Many people just sort of assume that new technology will exacerbate inequality. But what if it does the opposite?

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

2/In the 80s, 90s, and 00s, the big fear was that computerization would lead to inequality, because some people would have the skills to use computers, and others wouldn't.

But if any of that did happen, it was over by the 1990s.

davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/skill-t…

3/Nowadays the big fear is that AI/automation/robots will replace human workers. Even if robots don't actually take your job, maybe they'll reduce your wages?

pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.125…

4/Everybody is investing in automation, and AI tech still seems to be improving rapidly, so a lot of people are scared about technology-driven inequality.

5/A second fear is that countries that dominate in the AI/robot field will suck up most of the manufacturing in the world, leaving less technologically advanced countries without a development strategy.

imf.org/en/Publication…

6/So are we poised for an era of A.I. Haves and A.I. Have-Nots?

Maybe.

But there's also the possibility that new technology will help drive inequality DOWN rather than up.

We should be prepared for this possibility.

7/First, let's talk about those robots.

Here's a paper showing that industries that get new automation technologies tend to ADD jobs rather than subtracting them, suggesting that automation boosts labor demand. That should boost wages too!

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…