Thread by @Noahpinion

1/OK, so here's a thread about why I'm so excited about the revolution in solar+storage technology!

Energy tech might be uniquely capable of boosting PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH -- something other recent innovations haven't always been able to do!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-ex…

2/Remember when "the future" looked like this?

3/Around 1973, "the future" changed. We stopped innovating in physical technology ("atoms"), and started innovating in digital technology ("bits").

medium.com/@skanda_shastr…

4/Why did that happen? Why did innovation shift away from better appliances, faster transportation, etc.?

Reason 1: The prices of oil suddenly went way up, and became more volatile.

5/And reason 2: We didn't switch to nuclear.

(Let's not argue all day over whether we should have switched. The fact is, nobody was ever getting a fission-powered car.)

noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/solar-…

6/When oil got expensive and we didn't switch to anything better, productivity growth collapsed.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

7/But after 10-15 years, productivity growth *somewhat* came back! Computers and IT drove the resurgence, which started in the late 80s and lasted through 2004.

chicagofed.org/publications/c…

8/BUT, then in 2005 and afterwards, productivity growth slowed down again, for reasons that are not yet well-understood.

frbsf.org/economic-resea…

9/My post discusses a number of hypotheses why "bits" innovation doesn't always drive fast productivity growth the way "atoms" innovation seems to.

Suffice it to say: We don't know exactly why.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-ex…

10/Now, new A.I. innovation might drive another productivity boom! That might happen!

ide.mit.edu/sites/default/…

11/BUT, I'm much more excited about the productivity possibilities of ENERGY TECHNOLOGY.

Solar and storage are getting cheaper by leaps and bounds. This is a true technological revolution.

12/And there's no end in sight for that revolution.

Solid-state batteries, for example, will be another game-changer when they arrive.

wired.com/story/quantums…

13/Not to mention next-generation solar cells.

scitechdaily.com/cheap-renewabl…

14/We all know that these technologies will make climate change easier to solve, helping us preserve our industrial civilization far into the future.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/climate-chan…

15/But also, solar + storage will give us something that we haven't gotten in many decades:

A new, cheaper source of energy.

Cheap energy will change everything, just as the discovery of oil and coal changed everything (but with less environmental destruction).

16/What could cheap energy allow us to do?

How about LARGE-SCALE DESALINATION? Solve that fresh water crisis?

news.mit.edu/2020/passive-s…

17/How about BATTERY-POWERED PLANES??

newscenter.lbl.gov/2020/07/20/bat…

18/How about cheaper everything??

19/And here's the thing -- energy technology might promote economic EQUALITY rather than economic inequality!

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

20/Of course, remember that every technological revolution needs proper institutions to make it work for all of society.

21/But the revolution in energy technology promises to free us from the prospect of a stagnant, zero-sum world, where people believe that the only way to get rich is at their neighbors' expense.

Ultimately, THAT is what productivity growth is about.

22/Environmental preservation, sustainability, the potential for a more equal economy, a positive-sum world, and cheaper stuff for everyone: THAT IS THE FUTURE WE WANTED.

And it looks like we might finally get that future after all.

(end)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-ex…