PM Jean Castex will announce at 6pm whether the 2nd French Covid lockdown will be lifted as conditionally promised from next Tuesday (15 Dec). Daily cases are still drifting upwards. All the same, French media believe that the lockdown WILL be eased. 1/8
The daily ave. of cases in the last 7 days is 11,368, compared to 10,524 last week. President Macron’s end-of-lockdown target of 5,000 cases cannot be met in time. BUT Media betting is that Castex will replace home “confinement” with an earlier-than-planned curfew (from 8pm). 2/8
The re-opening of theatres, cinemas etc may be delayed. Holiday travel between regions? May be allowed… but uncertain. Decisions were made at a Health Defence Council yesterday but have not yet fully leaked. 3/8
Although the average number of cases has started to climb worryingly, after falling for 5 weeks (almost 15,000 yesterday), Castex will place the blame partly on cold weather. Macron’s other “test figure” – C19 population in intensive care below 3,000 – has almost been met. 4/8
Here are the figures, crunched back for 7 days.
New cases, backwards from yesterday: 14,595-13,713-3,411-11,022-12,923-11,221-12,696.
The new 7-day average is 11,368, after 10,524 last week.
Earlier weekly averages, going backwards:
12,421- 26,673 - 29,413 - 53,344. 5/8
New cases, backwards from yesterday: 14,595-13,713-3,411-11,022-12,923-11,221-12,696.
The new 7-day average is 11,368, after 10,524 last week.
Earlier weekly averages, going backwards:
12,421- 26,673 - 29,413 - 53,344. 5/8
The positive rate for tests appears to have plunged from 10.7% to 6.4% but this is misleading. The calculation base has been changed to include “second tests”.
Numbers in ICU are still falling – to 3,041 from 3,425 a week ago. Macron’s 3,000 target should be hit soon. 6/8
Numbers in ICU are still falling – to 3,041 from 3,425 a week ago. Macron’s 3,000 target should be hit soon. 6/8
There have now been 56,648 C19 deaths in France since 1 March. The mortality rate is falling slowly. There were an average 404.57 deaths a day in the last 7 days, compared to 454.7 last week. Previous weekly averages: 521.2 -574 -582.4 - 488.5. 7/8
Conclusion: The government faces a risky calculation. Delay the end of home lockdown and strain public patience? Or ease lockdown and strengthen the resurgent epidemic? It will probably try to split the difference. 8/8
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