Quiz yourself whether a Covid wealth tax is a good idea (if you want to do the quiz, don't read the column till later when we'd appreciate the clicks...

,ft.com/content/e3d0a6… via @financialtimes
Simple questions: who should pay more in a wealth tax:

a) a rich young banker driving her new Lamborghini to and from her riverside penthouse; or
b) an NHS consultant convalescing after weeks on a ventilator having contracted Covid-19 trying to save lives?
How about:

a) the business owner whose motto is “you only live once” and plans for the government to look after him in retirement; or
b) the business owner who’s horrified by the idea of reliance on the state for his pension or social care?
Or

a) the playboy Russian son of an oligarch with a rented home in Mayfair; or
b) a headteacher living in one of London’s comfortable suburbs?
If your answers were mostly a) you should oppose the "Wealth Tax Commission" proposals.

If they were mostly b) you should be fully in support of them
My bet is most people are mostly a) for good practical reasons.

But that's not how the proposed one-off tax works and so the politics of it would never work (regardless of economic efficiency arguments
And another thing: "A wealth tax is unnecessary. Sensible income, expenditure, property and inheritance taxation can raise the revenues required to repair any holes in the public finances and redistribute income and wealth as society demands."

ft.com/content/e3d0a6…

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More from @ChrisGiles_

1 Dec
UPDATE: A cautious estimate of the number of excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus since mid march has passed a new marker and stands at

80,100

Of these 75,200 have happened and the rest are estimates bringing lagged official data up to date

1/
When measured properly, it is clear that the second wave has been far less deadly than the first.

My estimates suggest that excess deaths are now beginning to decline

2/
Why should you believe these numbers?

a) Because the updating model is proving remarkably accurate in the second wave (I'm surprised how accurate)

b) This welcome feature stems from better Covid testing, so daily hospital deaths pick up roughly all excess deaths this time

3/
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
After today's official figures on excess all cause mortality up to 6 Nov, my estimate of the current total of excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus stands at

75,000

Of these deaths, 70,528 have already happened. The rest are estimates to bring the data up to date

1/
While all cause mortality does not tell us exactly why people died, the figures are rising slower than deaths which doctors directly attribute to Covid-19 (not much, but a little)

And they are happening in the areas with high Covid-19 caseloads.

2/
Doctors certificates and regional correlations with the disease incidence (both in the sping and now) should be enough to convince rational people that the cause is Covid-19.

To argue otherwise requires quite some contrary evidence.

3/
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov
Why is the UK economy performing worse than other countries during the coronavirus pandemic?

Is it just a question of measurement?

tl:dr No

1/ ft.com/content/c5d72d… via @financialtimes
@FinancialTimes UK GDP is still 9.7 per cent below pre-pandimc level - much worse than most other countries

BUT

And one for @Gilesyb, Nominal GDP is in line with other countries

THIS suggests something is up with the GDP deflator

2/
@FinancialTimes @Gilesyb There is something up with the public sector element of the deflator.

UK health deflator is running at 91%

Yes 91%

Because high Covid spending is paired with low levels of operations and GP visists

3/
Read 8 tweets
10 Nov
No death is ever good news, but the relatively low number (996) excess deaths in England & Wales over the most recent week suggests the number of deaths linked to coronavirus since the pandemic began is around

72,300

1/ Image
There is now no doubt that the second wave is very different to the first.

In England & Wales, excess deaths have been in Covid hotspots so clearly linked, but have been running lower than the govt's deaths within 28 days of a test.

In the spring they were double

2/
The deaths in the most recent week of ONS data were people infected around the start of October, so there are unfortunately likely to be further increases to come in the weeks ahead..

... but hopefully massively more limited

Especially in care homes

3/

ft.com/content/27eee5…
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
What do we know about the UK second wave of Covid-19 and the effect of lockdowns?

tl:dr - cases are high, but not as bad as the first wave and the lockdown won't be as bad too

A piece with beautiful charts from @jburnmurdoch

1/

ft.com/content/446124…
Case numbers are high across the UK and again much higher when people are tested randomly than when they go for tests, but it's still nothing like the case estimates of the spring

2/
Borrowing from economics, where we also have to be careful about measurement error and out-of-date data, hospitalisations and deaths are not following the patterns of the spring.

So far, excess deaths this time are in line with recorded daily deaths, for example

3/
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov
⚠️ Thread exclusively for nerds ⚠️

On UK GDP double deflation....

.... and why this is bad news for the measured productivity of lawyers and management consultants

but good news for telecoms companies

1/
The ONS today published its first estimates of UK GDP volumne based on double deflation (ie you measure the volume of inputs for each industry and outputs)

Doesn't make much difference to overall GDP trends, but it does to industry controibutions

ons.gov.uk/economy/nation…

2/
But the big change - which has been flagged for over 2 years is that the ONS has been underestimating the output of the telecoms industry significantly because it did not recognise how much output prices have fallen

3/
ft.com/content/abc14c…
Read 8 tweets

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