6/ Take the top 75 cities. From Los Angeles to Toledo, Ohio.
1 event per quarter (season). 4 events a year.
500 kids show up per event.
+ $79 entrance fee
+ 60% of people opt in for a $21/yr data storage
~$50k revenue/event
7/ Kids get a digital dashboard of their age, height, weight, lean muscle mass, speed, vertical leap, agility, reaction speed + 1-2 skill tests
Benchmarked against other kids their age.
They leave w/ a score, some swag & IG worthy pics. (think Tough Mudder, Spartan Race)
8/ COSTS
$5k fixed costs for test equipment (scales, scanners, stopwatch, cones, jump stick etc.)
10 staff x 2 days x 8 hrs/day x $16/hr = $2500 variable cost per event
+ $1000 misc (insurance etc.)
= $8500 cost to run the event (83% gross margin)
9/ Acquiring Customers
I'd do a combination of :
* Setup table / Booth next to the field of every tournament etc.. with free gatorade and collect emails
* facebook ads
* referral discounts if they get friends to join
blended cac, lets say $25/customer ($12.5k/event)
10/ Net Total:
$50k revenue
-$8.5k cogs
-$12.5k marketing
=
$29k profit per event
x
4 events a year x 75 cities =
~$9m ebitda per year. Bootstrapped with less than $100k initial capital.
11/ Every year, it gets better.
* You become the de-facto leader because your brand/score is what's known/accepted (similar to the SATs, or ACTs)
* Every year, ~30% of kids will get re-tested and get to see how much they've grown as athletes.
Lifetime value might be ~$500+
12/ This business requires:
* no coding / technical skill
* no reputation / past experience
* no venture capital
Just hustle, creativity, patience, and the ops skills of a summer camp counselor.
Within 3 years, you're doing $7-10M in profit per year (valued at $50m+)
13/ You can also franchise the business to operators in each city.
I'd recruit ex-college athletes who didn't make it pro (what's Greg Paulus up to?) to be the face of each event in their hometown city.
14/ This idea combines some trends I believe in:
* out of home entertainment that creates IG worthy pictures (eg. spartan race, escape rooms, museum of ice cream)
* certification business models (where you create the standardized test)
* over-parenting
15/ There are ~40-60M kids playing youth sports.
Let's take the top 2% that really compete (eg. travel teams, AAU, hire trainers etc.). That's 1M kids.
We're trying to get 150k of them (15% of 2%) to test themselves as athletes!
16/ If you're a hustler who can pull this off, DM me. I'll put up the cash and advise.
Start with 1 event in 1 city, and grow from there.
Too many people replying this is a good idea. Which means it’s probably a shit idea.
The ratio I want is 10% love it, 60% no rxn, 30% think it’s really stupid
UPDATE: too many dms, don’t have time to reply
- the idea is out there
- you don’t need me to “pick you”
- there’s no permission required
If you like the idea just go with it and if you get any momentum, lemme know and I can help with money or advice
btw if you think my assumptions are off (spoiler, they probably are) @taimurabdaal made a cool public model using @CausalHQ where you can type in your own assumptions for costs, revenue etc..
companies I coulda woulda shoulda invested in but didn't .. (aka the "greatest misses")
@calm - I am friends w/ @tewy & @acton and think they are ballers. probably could've invested at seed round (~$5M valuation). Now worth $1B+ easily. 200x+ return
didn't invest because I didn't consider myself an investor at the time
Seemed like a decent idea but I didn't fully understand it (still don't)....But I thought he was really clever (I remember a story about a 🍆 detection thing he built)
you get:
- 4 years of experience, in 1 year
- a piece of my carry (I take 0% management fees, so there's no salary)
- walk away with a portfolio of 25+ companies in your portfolio
you give:
- your nights/weekends hustling to invest in startups
software is such a cheat code in the game of business. My first company was a restaurant. One of the worst businesses you can start (everyone told me this, but being young, I told them to kick rocks)
we tried building the "Chipotle for Sushi"
Here's the rule of thumb $s :
- ˜10-15% profit margins (if you survive)
- ˜$500k-$1.5M up front investment
- 6 months+ per new store
- need tons of employees, <15% employee retention
- spend 85% of time on the bottom 10% of stores
Plus the lifestyle.
- business runs 7 days a week, no holidays
- I still remember going to the fish market at 430am to get fresh ingredients, & washing dishes until midnight
- Hated the work (crappy feeling "this sucks, who can I pay $12/hr to do this for me?")
the speech "you and your research" by Richard hamming is A+. I think it's a must-read for any person who wants to make the most of their time & talents.
My notes:
re: Luck - "there is indeed an element of luck..The particular thing you do is luck, but that you do something is not"
I was telling @_johnnydallas_ yesterday: "if you're a founder, every year you have a high chance of failure, but over a decade, you're almost certain to win."
"one of the characteristics successful scientists have is courage. Once you get your courage up & believe that you can do important problems - then you can. If you think you can't, almost surely you're not going to."