The framing of this big issue remaining in UK-EU talks is clearly important. We hear that the EU has dropped dynamic alignment or the ratchet but they were only partially formed devices to enforce the main issue, future proofing fair competition clauses.
If (a big if) the overnight movement was the UK in principle finally accepting fair competition clauses could be future proofed, then the challenge for the EU is proposing a form of words (the EU is demandeur so their job) acceptable to their stakeholders and the UK.
The UK might have accepted the principle of future proofed fair competition but reject, under their own domestic pressure, every potential mechanism. Or the EU might not get Member State or European Parliament support if mechanisms seem insufficiently strong or difficult to use.
Novel clauses in a trade agreement like the future proofed fair competition can easily take weeks and months to develop. The EU and UK have days. That's why although keeping talking, and possible breakthrough, are good, we are a long way from deal.
One thing the UK side will be happy about - the EU is being credited by the UK media with moving position. It is noticeable how the EU side is hardly briefing (we know this because when it briefs it leaks). This looks deliberate and positive. But still all to play for, because...
Johnson still to make decision on UK-EU deal.
And we still can't say whether he will go for a deal that upsets hardcore Brexiteers.
So ultimately, we still don't know.
Sorry those who need to know.
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The largest single day rise in trade barriers in known history on the second largest global trade flow. And nobody knows what exact rules will apply from January 1. What could possibly go wrong? 😬
Not just queues at Dover. A myriad of rules covering virtually every area of trade whether goods or services. Rarely discussed because the government and Brexit ultras don't understand the complexities of modern trade. ft.com/content/23ad93…
Wrong. Quite spectacularly wrong. And worrying that we still haven't learnt much about negotiations. Domestic debate does not actively damage a country's negotiating position. It is normal.
In fact the best negotiators use the different elements of domestic debate to their advantage. Something that almost every trade negotiating expert has pointed out the UK has denied itself by an overwhelming belief in secrecy and not telling Parliament much.
Also a highly political statement for a government advisor to make, that the views of a senior MP are not welcome on a negotiation. Clearly the battle for Brexit ranges just as intensely as it ever did within the Conservative Party.
Has to be one of the most idiotic government actions this year, tough competition. Overturning a local decision at a time of rapidly spreading covid for 3-4 extra days of school.
A government that has learnt nothing about swift action to stop the spread, or over-centralisation.
At least two other boroughs to the best of my knowledge have announced the closure of schools, and informed parents accordingly. But Gavin Williamson thinks he knows better. Will similar letters go to them? And are my kids going to school tomorrow or not?
I would very much like to see the policy advice and impact assessment on which the decision to force schools to reopen at a time of rapidly rising covid cases was based. I strongly suspect it does not exist.
Going to have to disagree with my learned friend here. If anyone moved on level playing field it was the UK, on the principle of a ratchet, or tariffs for divergence which was still being denied midweek. Changing the way in this might be achieved (many options) is insignificant.
It is the same "I move in principle you move in detail" shift we saw with the Northern Ireland protocol last year, when no PM could accept a border between GB and NI suddenly did, just as recently no PM would accept tariffs for divergence and seems to have done.
So, are we at deal yet? No, and it remains far from certain, but better than the gloom of Saturday. I still think the PM wants his ideal where everyone is happy, still hopes if only he can speak to Macron and Merkel he could get it, still to decide.
"Trade deals are not made to assert independence, they are to manage interdependence" - absolutely true, and actually a better description than the misleading 'free trade agreement'. Someone once suggested 'managed trade agreement' as more accurate.
Not analysing UK government minister statements today as to whether they give room for a deal. There's an obvious deal to be done on level playing field and if the UK side stops being so stubborn / scared of their party it is fine. It looks like we'll choose otherwise, we wait.
Adopt brace positions. Those persistently saying deal or no deal, prepare your victory speeches or concessions of defeat.
The UK is invited to join the queue of countries complaining about unfair EU negotiators.
No Brexit ultras don't tell me I'm a pro-EU shill. This was what Eurosceptics said five years ago. As a reason to leave. They just didn't think it could happen to us. Then it did.
For four and a half years trade experts said that nobody likes negotiating with the EU and we would have a hard time. No we were told, easiest deal ever etc, why aren't you celebrating? Now the same people say it is the EU being particularly nasty. Wrong then, wrong now.
There are plenty of people in the EU who think their negotiating strategy with third countries is harsh. But it isn't changing because we left. It might even get worse. We can whinge. Or dream or rejoining. But realistically all we can do is learn to negotiate the best we can.