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14 Dec, 18 tweets, 6 min read
Going to have to disagree with my learned friend here. If anyone moved on level playing field it was the UK, on the principle of a ratchet, or tariffs for divergence which was still being denied midweek. Changing the way in this might be achieved (many options) is insignificant.
It is the same "I move in principle you move in detail" shift we saw with the Northern Ireland protocol last year, when no PM could accept a border between GB and NI suddenly did, just as recently no PM would accept tariffs for divergence and seems to have done.
So, are we at deal yet? No, and it remains far from certain, but better than the gloom of Saturday. I still think the PM wants his ideal where everyone is happy, still hopes if only he can speak to Macron and Merkel he could get it, still to decide.
And even if there is a deal it is now too late for either business to adjust to it, or the EU to ratify it according to normal procedure. In both cases you'd think we'd need an extension, but there is a big shrug on this whole question. Nobody knows.
And so, yet again on Brexit, we wait. In particular, those who actually do the trade, the businesses we rely on, are forced to wait for a formal outcome while preparing as best they can. Let's see what happens.
Something like this.
Note the additional issues mentioned here, including the unwelcome return of Geographical Indications, the likely futile attempts to change the Withdrawal Agreement. We don't know how serious these might be, or just late sweeteners to the main deal.
We understand the game that the UK must never be seen to compromising to get trade deals. Except that every trade deal involves compromises. Tricky conundrum to escape.
The last stage of this negotiation will be a subtle play between Johnson's fear of being seen to sell out Brexit with implications for his future, and the EU's need to deliver for its stakeholders while simultaneously letting the UK claim victory. Tricky.
More on the negotiation from the always well-informed and sharply observing @BBCkatyaadler (who I also recently discovered is almost exactly the same age as me, being one of several Brexitologists of roughly same, rather fine, vintage)
And more. A deal on balance the likelier outcome after a little bit of weekend movement, but no-deal still quite possible if both sides dig back in expecting the other to make most of the final moves.
I sometimes wonder if @tconnellyRTE is secretly running negotiations such is his mastery of the detail. Confirmation of shifts on both sides on level playing field, fishing remains difficult, and all deadlines now out the window.
I can tell you that one trade expert has 31 December as a forecast deal date, and has had for some time. It isn't me.
The continuing problem of there still being no deal fully acceptable to both EU and ERG splendidly illustrated. This is why the PM has yet to make a decision even if the current slight lean is deal.
Passing on the important information here, but honestly the EU's handling of their deadlines has been so consistently inept for the last two months that I don't have a sense anyone has a clue what will happen in deal (many have views on what might)
A subtly harder line from the EU here. Everyone has domestic politics, and in trade they're all important.
UK government messaging changing by the hour. Trade deals aren't usually such interesting spectator sports, but to be fair the domestic politics on both sides coupled with the impending deadline is unusual.
Really does feel like Number 10 changing their line on whether there will be a Brexit deal depending on the last group to lobby intensively. Today the ERG have been saying no sell out, previously business said deal a must...

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
15 Dec
The largest single day rise in trade barriers in known history on the second largest global trade flow. And nobody knows what exact rules will apply from January 1. What could possibly go wrong? 😬
Not just queues at Dover. A myriad of rules covering virtually every area of trade whether goods or services. Rarely discussed because the government and Brexit ultras don't understand the complexities of modern trade. ft.com/content/23ad93…
Choices. UK fishing fleets v UK farmed fish. No easy answers. ft.com/content/b4bcb8…
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
15 Dec
Wrong. Quite spectacularly wrong. And worrying that we still haven't learnt much about negotiations. Domestic debate does not actively damage a country's negotiating position. It is normal. Image
In fact the best negotiators use the different elements of domestic debate to their advantage. Something that almost every trade negotiating expert has pointed out the UK has denied itself by an overwhelming belief in secrecy and not telling Parliament much.
Also a highly political statement for a government advisor to make, that the views of a senior MP are not welcome on a negotiation. Clearly the battle for Brexit ranges just as intensely as it ever did within the Conservative Party.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
14 Dec
Has to be one of the most idiotic government actions this year, tough competition. Overturning a local decision at a time of rapidly spreading covid for 3-4 extra days of school.

A government that has learnt nothing about swift action to stop the spread, or over-centralisation.
At least two other boroughs to the best of my knowledge have announced the closure of schools, and informed parents accordingly. But Gavin Williamson thinks he knows better. Will similar letters go to them? And are my kids going to school tomorrow or not?
I would very much like to see the policy advice and impact assessment on which the decision to force schools to reopen at a time of rapidly rising covid cases was based. I strongly suspect it does not exist.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
13 Dec
The framing of this big issue remaining in UK-EU talks is clearly important. We hear that the EU has dropped dynamic alignment or the ratchet but they were only partially formed devices to enforce the main issue, future proofing fair competition clauses.
If (a big if) the overnight movement was the UK in principle finally accepting fair competition clauses could be future proofed, then the challenge for the EU is proposing a form of words (the EU is demandeur so their job) acceptable to their stakeholders and the UK.
The UK might have accepted the principle of future proofed fair competition but reject, under their own domestic pressure, every potential mechanism. Or the EU might not get Member State or European Parliament support if mechanisms seem insufficiently strong or difficult to use.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
13 Dec
"Trade deals are not made to assert independence, they are to manage interdependence" - absolutely true, and actually a better description than the misleading 'free trade agreement'. Someone once suggested 'managed trade agreement' as more accurate.
Not analysing UK government minister statements today as to whether they give room for a deal. There's an obvious deal to be done on level playing field and if the UK side stops being so stubborn / scared of their party it is fine. It looks like we'll choose otherwise, we wait.
Adopt brace positions. Those persistently saying deal or no deal, prepare your victory speeches or concessions of defeat.

Unless they delay again...
Read 15 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Dec
The UK is invited to join the queue of countries complaining about unfair EU negotiators.

No Brexit ultras don't tell me I'm a pro-EU shill. This was what Eurosceptics said five years ago. As a reason to leave. They just didn't think it could happen to us. Then it did.
For four and a half years trade experts said that nobody likes negotiating with the EU and we would have a hard time. No we were told, easiest deal ever etc, why aren't you celebrating? Now the same people say it is the EU being particularly nasty. Wrong then, wrong now.
There are plenty of people in the EU who think their negotiating strategy with third countries is harsh. But it isn't changing because we left. It might even get worse. We can whinge. Or dream or rejoining. But realistically all we can do is learn to negotiate the best we can.
Read 4 tweets

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