Wrong. Quite spectacularly wrong. And worrying that we still haven't learnt much about negotiations. Domestic debate does not actively damage a country's negotiating position. It is normal.
In fact the best negotiators use the different elements of domestic debate to their advantage. Something that almost every trade negotiating expert has pointed out the UK has denied itself by an overwhelming belief in secrecy and not telling Parliament much.
Also a highly political statement for a government advisor to make, that the views of a senior MP are not welcome on a negotiation. Clearly the battle for Brexit ranges just as intensely as it ever did within the Conservative Party.
And though there is some discussion about this I still think at core the ERG does not want an EU trade deal. Because a deal means compromise, and compromise is inconsistent with alternate realities. It all sets a precedent for future deals with the EU.
If the Conservative Party was united about a deal the PM would have done it weeks ago. It isn't, and that is the delay. Technical issues are not sufficiently difficult to prevent a deal and haven't been for many weeks. This remains all about the political decision. Or not.
From my last Brexit article, four weeks ago. Nothing fundamental has changed. Deal or no-deal is still all about the messy internal politics of UK and EU. prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

16 Dec
UK-EU latest, deal still in the balance as a few difficult areas remain, EU ratification still a puzzle, implementation still a puzzle.
Interesting to note fishing and future proofing of level playing field still outstanding - where the political problems are most acute. Don't count on the deal just yet.
This remains the crux of the deal or not. It is still not completely clear if the UK have accepted or not, as it breaches original UK red lines. Then if resolved some fish splitting and fudging all ways round.
Read 4 tweets
15 Dec
Not sure of the exact impact of this backdown, but very slowly the government is having to accept realities with regard to trade and Brexit, whether in terms of devolution, the Northern Ireland protocol, and quite possibly an EU trade deal.
The UK can leave the EU. But we can't leave Europe, and while there is an EU we'll have to deal with it. As the smaller party. We can trade globally. But it will always be easier to trade regionally. Facts, however many 'glorious global Britain smashes EU' articles appear.
I presume those MPs celebrating the "freedom clause" were unaware that the original EU draft text contained no commitment for the UK to have to follow EU rules in Labour and the environment, except not to lower levels of protection. Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Dec
One note of caution. This is the third time I have heard of such buzz and the previous two were clearly false alarms. And they were the same, eurosceptics being assured they would be happy.

The UK side record of judging talks has to date been poor. But we shall see.
Ah, the UK might have 'won' a mechanism almost certainly on the table since June. Renewed government effort to see how many backbenchers really care? (NB it was never going to be unilateral withdrawal of preference because that doesn't suit the EU).
Reminder: The EU wanted a joint commitment to upholding roughly equal standards and the possibility of protecting themselves with tariffs if this didn't happen. If today's rumours are correct the UK has successfully negotiated what the EU wanted.
Read 5 tweets
15 Dec
The largest single day rise in trade barriers in known history on the second largest global trade flow. And nobody knows what exact rules will apply from January 1. What could possibly go wrong? 😬
Not just queues at Dover. A myriad of rules covering virtually every area of trade whether goods or services. Rarely discussed because the government and Brexit ultras don't understand the complexities of modern trade. ft.com/content/23ad93…
Choices. UK fishing fleets v UK farmed fish. No easy answers. ft.com/content/b4bcb8…
Read 5 tweets
14 Dec
Has to be one of the most idiotic government actions this year, tough competition. Overturning a local decision at a time of rapidly spreading covid for 3-4 extra days of school.

A government that has learnt nothing about swift action to stop the spread, or over-centralisation.
At least two other boroughs to the best of my knowledge have announced the closure of schools, and informed parents accordingly. But Gavin Williamson thinks he knows better. Will similar letters go to them? And are my kids going to school tomorrow or not?
I would very much like to see the policy advice and impact assessment on which the decision to force schools to reopen at a time of rapidly rising covid cases was based. I strongly suspect it does not exist.
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
Going to have to disagree with my learned friend here. If anyone moved on level playing field it was the UK, on the principle of a ratchet, or tariffs for divergence which was still being denied midweek. Changing the way in this might be achieved (many options) is insignificant.
It is the same "I move in principle you move in detail" shift we saw with the Northern Ireland protocol last year, when no PM could accept a border between GB and NI suddenly did, just as recently no PM would accept tariffs for divergence and seems to have done.
So, are we at deal yet? No, and it remains far from certain, but better than the gloom of Saturday. I still think the PM wants his ideal where everyone is happy, still hopes if only he can speak to Macron and Merkel he could get it, still to decide.
Read 18 tweets

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