One other thing I'd point out with regard to this analysis is that much of it is just driven by the current account surplus.
Throughout 2009-2018, China reinvested a consistent 4%-7% of its BoP surplus in BRI projects.
Throughout 2009-2018, China reinvested a consistent 4%-7% of its BoP surplus in BRI projects.
https://twitter.com/ChorzempaMartin/status/1338500619783565316
Before 2009 of course the destination of choice for BoP surplus funds was U.S. Treasuries. 2019 clearly does break that trend too at ~0.75% of the BoP surplus going into BRI projects.
But the decline in 2018 was really pretty much in line with the previous decade. In fact a higher share of the surplus went to BRI that year than in 2015, when 4x the dollar amount was invested.
Bear in mind that there's probably likely to be a lag between the BoP and BRI investments because you don't have perfect foreknowledge of what the current account will be doing in advance.
The current account surplus looks to be on the rise again so I wouldn't rule out BRI, or OECD sovereign debt, or some other offshore investment, getting pumped up again in the near future. Those dollars have to go somewhere.
Sorry, please switch all references to "BoP surplus" to "CA surplus" throughout. Sloppy tweeting.
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