Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 12 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I analyze the Premier League football played at the weekend:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Q: Who is the best differential striker?

A lot of FPL managers have sent in their questions regarding a differential striker this week as they see this as a way to make up some points over the condensed fixture schedule...

...Let us take a look at which of the following options are worth investing in:

Watkins vs Ings vs Ché Adams v Wood (this season)
Mins per shot inside the box: 39.1 vs 40 vs 57.5 vs 52
Mins per big chance: 81.8 vs 108.5 vs 172.5 vs 105
Mins per big chance created: 900 vs 760 vs 172.5 vs 941
xG: 5.72 vs 4.5 vs 3.62 vs 3.63

I think Watkins is the one who stands out here and given his fixtures (BUR wba CRY che mun), even without penalty duties he can represent good value. Considering that Villa are ranked first for shots inside the box and xG over the last six GWs, he’s an excellent pick...

... Wood, like every Burnley striker every year, is going under the radar but his numbers are impressive and fixtures on his side. I think he’s a better pick than the Southampton strikers, who face Liverpool and Man City in two of their next five so their ceiling isn’t as big.

Q: Who is the best Diogo Jota replacement?

This is the most popular dilemma of the week. With the Portuguese now confirmed to be sidelined for at least six to eight weeks, it is time to look for a replacement. Here I look at the options in detail:

Zaha vs Bowen vs Souček vs Raphinha vs Podence

Mins per shot inside the box: 35.6 vs 49.9 vs 60 vs 41.5 vs 58.7
Mins per big chance: 127.3 vs 249.3 vs 216 vs 415 vs 274
Mins per big chance created: 297 vs 332.3 vs 1080 vs 415 vs 411

I didn’t mention Grealish as he’s slight expensive, but he’d be my pick if you don’t own him already. By looking at the stats, Zaha being on penalties and nailed on to play for Palace during the congested run means he stands out from the pack, but...

... his fixtures (whu LIV avl LEI SHU) seem mixed compared to relatively favorable fixtures for Leeds (NEW mun BUR wba tot) and West Ham (CRY che BHA sou eve). I don’t think Souček’s numbers are good enough to suggest the sustainability of his points, so...

... I expect his points to dry up as his open play threat is limited. Bowen would be my pick if I was buying a West Ham asset instead as he seems to be far more involved from open play...

... Podence is a actually a better asset without Jimenez now, but his fixtures are tough so I'd rather look elsewhere.

Q: Is it worth holding on to Jamie Vardy?

Another big haul at the weekend saw Vardy register his fourth double digit return of the season, which also saw Leicester jump to the top for xG over the last six GWs. Let's take a deep dive and see whether...

... the Foxes have indeed picked up the pace compared to the start of the season:

Leicester (GW 1-6) vs Leicester (GW 7-12)
Shots inside the box per game: 6.16 vs 8.67
Big chances per game: 2 vs 2.67
Chances created per game: 5.5 vs 8.33

Vardy (GW 1-6) vs Vardy (GW 7-12)
Mins per shot inside the box: 42.7 vs 35.7
Mins per big chance: 48.1 vs 66.9
Mins per big chance created: 385 vs 267.5

By looking at the stats, it can be seen that the improvement in Leicester’s numbers...

... coincides with the upturn in Vardy’s numbers, particularly when you consider that the first six GW’s for Leicester were inflated due to the high number of penalties they were awarded. Vardy has mixed fixtures coming up (EVE tot MUN cry new) but given that he is nailed...

... on to play 90 minutes and guaranteed to take penalties, it is probably worth holding on to him. He allows an easy swap to Kane soon anyways.

Q: Has the Leeds defence regressed in terms of underlying numbers or have they been unlucky to concede goals of late?

Let's take a look into how have Leeds performed defensively in recent GWs compared to the start of the season:

Leeds (GW 3-9) vs Leeds (GW 10-12)

Shots inside the box conceded per game: 8.9 vs 13.7
Big chances conceded: 3 vs 4

Leeds have looked tired of late and have started allowing the opposition to swarm their box. Over the span of last three GWs, Leeds have also...

... been worst for both the statistics mentioned above in the league and despite favorable fixtures to come in the next few GWs (NEW mun BUR wba tot) it remains to be seen if they revert back to normal. From GW 3-9 they were unlucky to concede...

... in some games despite having good attacking numbers, but recently their lack of clean sheets has been because of their own making.

Q: Is it time to sell Timo Werner?

A disappointing performance in attack saw Chelsea lose out to Everton over the weekend. This loss also saw Werner fail to manage even a single shot on target. Last week I pointed out that the loss of Ziyech had not had a direct impact...

... on his numbers. Now I look at his numbers again:

Werner (GW 7-10) vs Werner (GW11) vs Werner (GW12)

Mins per shot inside the box: 46.7 vs 22.5 vs 90
Mins per big chance: 65.4 vs 45 vs 90
Mins per big chance created: 327 vs 90 vs 90

As you can see the stats are “wildly inconsistent” which is not something you’d expect from a premium asset at his price. Therefore, it might be the right time to sell Werner to fund a premium striker in the form of Harry Kane or a budget striker in the shape of...

... Patrick Bamford which may enable funds to be distributed in other positions while managing to produce the same quality in attack.

Q: Which Fulham assets are worth considering going forward?

With a decent run of fixtures coming up in the festive season (BHA new SOU tot bur) it might be worth looking at the differential assets which Fulham offer. Let's take a look at how Fulham have been faring in the...

... attacking department in recent weeks compared to the start of the season:

Fulham (GW 1-8) vs Fulham (GW 9-12)
Shots inside the box per game: 7.13 vs 6
Big chances per game: 1.38 vs 3
Chances created per game: 9.5 vs 8.25

It’s evident that since Mitrovic has been dropped, Fulham have adapted a more fluid style of play which has helped them produce chances of high quality. They rank around mid table for xG and big chances this season so it’s not as if they are a terrible attacking side...

... When I look at their numbers over the season:

Cavaleiro vs Lookman vs Reid
Mins per shot inside the box: 78.9 vs 61.6 vs 70
Mins per big chance: 157.8 vs 246.3 vs 175
Mins per big chance created: 789 vs 246.3 vs 700

Cavaleiro seems to be getting the majority of the big chances, and in the past four GW’s he has accumulated five big chances. The comparison between him and Lookman is a bit like Calvert Lewin v Richarlison in my opinion, where Richarlison...

... often seems to be doing the dirty work with Calvert Lewin on hand for the tap ins.

Q: Which are the best Man City defenders to own?

With four clean sheets on the trot, Man City are starting to shape up as the team they were in the previous seasons. Let's take a look at how much Man City have improved since the start of the season:

Man City (GW 2-8) vs Man City (GW 9-12)

Shots inside the box conceded per game: 7.57 vs 4
Big chances conceded per game: 2.14 vs 0.5
As we can see above there has been a huge improvement in the back line for Man City, these improvements...

... can be attributed to a stable back four that Guardiola is now opting for, let's take a deeper look at each of them:

Cancelo vs Dias vs Stones

Mins per touches in the final third: 2.88 vs 37.6 vs 45
Mins per shots inside the box: 630 vs 131.7 vs 360
Mins per big chance: 630 vs 395 vs 360
Mins per big chance created: 630 vs 790 vs 360
Mins per chance created: 37.1 vs 790 vs 360

By looking at the stats, it can be seen the Cancelo is heavily involved in the Man City attack whereas Dias and Stones both provide a better goal threat than Cancelo which can be put down to the quality of De Bruyne’s set pieces. With a favorable run...

...of fixtures (WBA sou NEW eve) it would be worthwhile to keep faith or invest in a Man City defensive asset. Dias is the pick of the bunch for me, as he seems to be the most nailed on and seems to have usurped even Laporte as the City defender of choice this year. Stones...

... has often flattered to deceive in the past, but he should be safe in the short term too and at below five million, he’s a steal. Cancelo has the best explosive potential, but if you have him make sure you have a playable bench in case he gets benched every now and then.

Q: Is it worth persisting with the Chelsea defensive double up and Liverpool defence?

Over the last six GWs both Liverpool and Chelsea have been in the top four for shots conceded inside the box and over the same duration Chelsea have been the best in the league for...

... big chances conceded and xG conceded. With both clubs performing well in defence off late it's time to look at the individual numbers:

Chilwell vs Reece James vs Robertson vs Trent
Mins per big chance: 802 vs 903 vs 540 vs 782
Mins per shot inside the box: 100.25 vs 301 vs 180 vs 782
Mins per chance created: 61.7 vs 64.5 vs 60 vs 55.85
Mins per touches inside the final third: 3.13 vs 3.33 vs 2.83 vs 2.66

By looking at the stats the best way going forward with the favorable run of fixtures (TOT cry WBA new sou) for Liverpool and Chelsea (wol WHU ars AVL MCI) respectively, the play is to hold the assets you have. I’d recommend at least one Chelsea and Liverpool...

... defender going forward. Chilwell’s numbers have slightly fallen of late and James has been out-stating him, but Chilwell is still a hold for me. I expect his numbers to improve once Ziyech is back.

Q: Who is the best option for captaincy this week?

Given that the new gameweek is beginning only a couple of days after the last one ended, it raises questions about which players might get rested or whether or not a full strength team will be playing on the pitch...

... Two options stand out this week, Bruno Fernandes and Kevin de Bruyne. There are slight concerns regarding a De Bruyne start, but I think he’s highly likely to play given the fact that he was rested in the Champions League and because City then dropped points at...

the weekend. Let's take a deeper look at both of them:

De Bruyne vs Fernandes (this season)
Mins per shot inside the box: 43.8 vs 68.1
Mins per big chance: 138.7 vs 126.4
Mins per big chance created: 104 vs 110.6
Mins per chance created: 26.8 vs 23.9

By looking at the stats, both the options seem to be on par with each other. Now, I’ll go through the opposition they are facing. Man City face West Brom who are worst for xG conceded and shots conceded inside the box over the season whereas Man United face Sheffield United...

... who are inside the worst four for the same category as West Brom stated above. Man City are the bookie favorites to score 2.5+ goals this week too, so for me they have the higher upside. I’m sure Bruno will do well too, but for me it’s De Bruyne captain this week.

Q: With the hectic fixture schedule coming up who are the premiums to invest in and is it more sensible investing in the bench?

With five GWs scheduled in the next 17 days, the element of rotation comes into play which is tough to tackle with just one free transfer every week...

... Therefore, in situations like these it's important to move strategically. In my opinion, what FPL managers can look to do is to build a team around three main premium FPL players; currently Salah, De Bruyne, and Bruno Fernandes...

... These players are nailed on to play most of the matches and when playing they have the safely blanket of penalty duties at their disposal which opens up another avenue of FPL points. From a defensive point of view, managers should ensure they have at least four playing...

... defenders available to cope with any unexpected benchings or injuries which are common at this time of the year. Looking further forward, particularly GW15 onwards, the Kane and Son double up will come into play again due to a favorable run...

... of fixtures (wol FUL LEE avl shu) for Spurs so ensure your team is structured in such a way where you can fit at least one of them in your teams if not both.

A big thank you to my friend @SFK7 who has helped me in my work!

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