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15 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
#earlyvote update 12/15

482,792 people have voted in the 2021 Georgia Senate run-off election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
This update includes new stats and maps for the in-person early votes and total early votes
I've been re-engineering the backend database, so there could be some bugs and typos lurking in here
Indeed, I see one with the age turnout rate among all early voters...this is an artifact of when I obtained the voter file from the state back in October. Since I get birthyear from the voter file, I have no age information for anyone who registered after I obtained the file

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Michael McDonald Profile picture
16 Dec
#earlyvote update 12/16

715,048 people have voted in the 2021 Georgia Senate run-off election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Georgia does not have party registration. Next best to watch is the racial profile of the electorate. Still a long way to go...

2020 General (final)
White: 56.4%
Black: 27.7%

2021 Senate Run-off (current)
White: 54.5% (-1.9 points)
Black: 33.1% (+4.4)
I am reluctant to make same day prior to the election comparisons. If you recall, for the first three days of in-person early voting during the general Georgia had a problem with their electronic poll books. In some places it took up to 15 minutes to check in a single voter.
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
8 Dec
When Democrats start voting in a particular way, Republicans suddenly become very interested in implementing measures to crack down on non-existent vote fraud 🤔
Expect more of this elsewhere. Before the pandemic, more Republicans voted by mail and Republican lawmakers were uninterested in mail ballot fraud or making it harder to cast a mail ballot
Kudos to Republicans who resisted Trump's efforts to subvert democracy, but Republicans have passed restrictive voting measures for decades throughout the U.S. aimed to make it harder for Democrats, and persons of color in particular, to vote. There's your real election rigging
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
8 Dec
With only a few states left to formally certify:

159.6 million total ballots counted for a turnout rate of 66.7%

A year ago I guessed 2/3rds of those eligible would vote, I wish I could say I'm a genius, but tbh I'm just lucky theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
The Sunday before the election estimate based on the early vote was 160.2 million, which wasn't off by much. That was the initial number that was loaded into the media's exit poll election night reporting system so that we wouldn't report % precincts electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
My 2020 turnout data are here. There will continue to be revisions in the coming years, particularly as more current census population estimates become available electproject.org/2020g
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
7 Dec
#earlyvote update 12/7

43,289 people have voted in Georgia's 2021 Senate run-off election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
There 104 voters who have rejected mail ballots. Underscoring how data entry errors affect these statistics, there are 6 voters whose ballots are rejected for the reason "Ballot Received After Deadline." In the general, these were eventually cleaned up, but come on.
If I were to guess by looking at the ballot request and received dates, these 6 rejected ballots appear to be late arriving ballots from the *general election*
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
28 Nov
#earlyvote update 11/28

New Georgia run-off stats from Friday. There are now 881,177 ballot requests.

I also updated the PA general election dashboard since @PAStateDept provided a Nov. 20 data file a few days ago and suddenly these data are a thing electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
I would have never believed a year ago that I'd be fact-checking vote fraud claims where Trump's legal team willfully confused PA primary and general mail ballot data
I mean, seriously, who could be dumb enough to put forth an argument that primary mail ballots are the same as general election mail ballots, and who could be even stupider to believe it?

Oh, this guy, a PA state Senator now calling to annul the election
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
6 Nov
Why are the large numbers of Arizona mail ballots breaking for Trump and the Pennsylvania ballots breaking for Biden? A couple of reasons...
In Pennsylvania, most voters who requested mail ballots for the primary automatically had their requests renewed for the general. Since the Democratic primary was contested, there were a large number of Democrats who had their requests rolled over to the general
Of course, Pennsylvania election officials could not begin processing any mail ballots until election day. The large number of returned ballots heavily favor the Democrats
Read 4 tweets

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