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Michael McDonald Profile picture
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8 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
With only a few states left to formally certify:

159.6 million total ballots counted for a turnout rate of 66.7%

A year ago I guessed 2/3rds of those eligible would vote, I wish I could say I'm a genius, but tbh I'm just lucky theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
The Sunday before the election estimate based on the early vote was 160.2 million, which wasn't off by much. That was the initial number that was loaded into the media's exit poll election night reporting system so that we wouldn't report % precincts electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
My 2020 turnout data are here. There will continue to be revisions in the coming years, particularly as more current census population estimates become available electproject.org/2020g
Let's give the reigning turnout champion a big hand. Minnesota led the way again, with a turnout rate of 80% of those eligible

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More from @ElectProject

Michael McDonald Profile picture
7 Dec
#earlyvote update 12/7

43,289 people have voted in Georgia's 2021 Senate run-off election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
There 104 voters who have rejected mail ballots. Underscoring how data entry errors affect these statistics, there are 6 voters whose ballots are rejected for the reason "Ballot Received After Deadline." In the general, these were eventually cleaned up, but come on.
If I were to guess by looking at the ballot request and received dates, these 6 rejected ballots appear to be late arriving ballots from the *general election*
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
28 Nov
#earlyvote update 11/28

New Georgia run-off stats from Friday. There are now 881,177 ballot requests.

I also updated the PA general election dashboard since @PAStateDept provided a Nov. 20 data file a few days ago and suddenly these data are a thing electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
I would have never believed a year ago that I'd be fact-checking vote fraud claims where Trump's legal team willfully confused PA primary and general mail ballot data
I mean, seriously, who could be dumb enough to put forth an argument that primary mail ballots are the same as general election mail ballots, and who could be even stupider to believe it?

Oh, this guy, a PA state Senator now calling to annul the election
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
6 Nov
Why are the large numbers of Arizona mail ballots breaking for Trump and the Pennsylvania ballots breaking for Biden? A couple of reasons...
In Pennsylvania, most voters who requested mail ballots for the primary automatically had their requests renewed for the general. Since the Democratic primary was contested, there were a large number of Democrats who had their requests rolled over to the general
Of course, Pennsylvania election officials could not begin processing any mail ballots until election day. The large number of returned ballots heavily favor the Democrats
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
5 Nov
Biden's Nevada lead is going to expand. I imagine there are furious decision desk discussions happening right now as to whether or not to call Nevada for Biden. Given some media calls for Arizona, this would effectively make Biden the presumptive president-elect
The media orgs that haven't called Arizona might thus hesitate to call Nevada because they don't want to foster the perception that their collective calls mean Biden is the presumptive president-elect
I honestly don't know how Arizona shakes out. Biden looks good, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty. I wouldn't have called it yet
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
4 Nov
I posted PRELIMINARY estimates of the 2020 state and national turnout and voting-eligible population turnout rates

160 million people voted

Turnout rate: 66.9%

Highest turnout rate since 1900: 73.7%

electproject.org/2020g
That is not a typo. The 2020 presidential election had the highest turnout rate in 120 years. There is still a fair amount of guesswork involving outstanding ballots to be counted. I will continue to refine these estimates over the coming weeks
2020's turnout in historical perspective. Highest in a 120 years, but not an all-time high Image
Read 6 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
3 Nov
#earlyvote morning update 11/3

At least 100 million people voted prior to Election Day in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
These are morning reports that include activity up to last night, so at least 100 million people really did vote before Election Day
This #earlyvote update includes reports from FL, GA, MT, NC, NY (finally sent me their absentee report), PA, VA, and WI
Read 10 tweets

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