“Maine – The most noteworthy aspect in the Senate race between Sara Gideon (Dem) and longtime incumbent Susan Collins (Rep) occurred with the pre-election polls. Not a single poll, of the 14 polls listed by RealClearPolitics since February 2020, gave Collins a lead.” 1/
https://twitter.com/tdmsresearch/status/1338937104777228290
“Not a single poll of the 22 polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight since July 6, 2020 gave Collins a lead. Gideon led in every poll—RealClearPolitics’ polls since the beginning of October averaged a lead of 5.7%, 538’s averaged a lead of 4.7% (listed in tables below).” 2/
“The 12.6% discrepancy between 538’s compiled polls and the computer vote count was the highest of all the US Senate races listed in the tables below.” 3/
“North Carolina – In 65 polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight since September 1, 2020 Cal Cunningham, Democrat led in 63. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis only led in one, with two polls tied.” 4/
“Similarly 43 polls listed by RealClearPolitics since September 1 Tillis led in only two with two tied. The unverified computer vote counts, however, declared Republican Thom Tillis the winner.” 5/
To be clear, polling discrepancies do not prove fraud bc the polls themselves are opaque. But these states do not conduct meaningful manual audits, which means the electronic results are effectively unverified. 6/
IMO, the polling discrepancies put us on inquiry notice. If we care about democracy, we shld investigate to the extent we can. 7/
IMO, at a minimum, we shld do public records requests for poll tapes and audit logs re: Republicans’ poll-defying victories in the US Senate races in Maine and NC. 8/
Yes, KY too, given it’s import & anomalies discovered by @GrassrootsSpeak. Although the polls did predict a McConnell victory, the result is still red shifted. 9/
The problem is that obtaining g and analyzing precinct poll tapes will be very time consuming and expensive. And it very well may not show anything amiss. This is why we need robust manual election audits for all races. The #SAFEAct wld have required them, but Rs killed it. 10/
12/ Hmm. Looks like the Colorado Senate race was way off (and in favor of the GOP) too. Ironically, the exit polls in the Georgia senate primaries show a red shift favoring the GOP, not the Democrats. At least if I'm reading this right. I have a headache.
13/ I want to make something else clear. I am not a number cruncher. At all. The data frustrates me. I rely on other people to analyze the data for the most part.
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