Thread on USDINR Trading:
Part of my capital i trade in USDINR - non-directional.
Past few months it traded in very narrow band - which is paradise for non-direction trading.
check chart.. last 3 months in just 2 Rs. Range
Today will share my December 2020 trade in USDINR

(1/4) Image
Entry Date: 8th December [normally i take position 40 - 45DTE]
Trade: iron condor
Strikes: sold 74.5 Ce and 73.5 PE [Jan 21 expiry]
Hedge: bought 75.5Ce and 72.5PE [Jan 21 expiry]

qty: for illustration shown 100 lots..
margin needed : 1,81,000

(2/4) Image
This is how pay off graph looks:

Risk reward: little under 1:1 [good for iron condors]

Adjustments: we are covered for 1 Rs on both sides. but in case of drastic move adjustments will be needed.

how to adjust: refer my video on youtube

(3/4) ImageImage
Current status: date 16th December

strategy in profit of 7,400 which is approx 4 % return on margin.

when to book ? typically when we get 7 -8% we can book part and tighten the hedge for balance..

lets watch how this closes - will update here
@jitendrajain @yogeeswarpal
(4/4) ImageImage
USDINR trade update:
We are right at the centre..

strategy in profit of 9350 almost 5% return...
no adjustments yet..
#USDINR Image
USDINR update:
strategy in profit 11300 6% almost
I like lazy instruments like me.. 😆 Image
USDINR update:
strategy in profit almost 6.5% + ..
book half and carry balance .. no adjustment yet. Image
USDINR update:
Strategy in profit of 7.5% on margin
No adjustment yet - holding 50% of original qty. Image
USDINR Adj 1:
exit from 74.5CE and Sell 73.75CE [30%-40% extra quantity]

Note: if you cover 50 lots of 74.5CE sell 70 lots of 73.75CE Image
USDINR update:
7.3% return so far.. will wait for few more days.. Image
USDINR Update: Closing Trade
closing this trade for 8.25% return.
still there is no risk and we can get 2-3% more in next one week. Image

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More from @yogeshnanda1

30 Jan
Thread on budget day nifty movement:
Few data points for budget day.
1. Average range for day 2.4% - can use this range of intraday strike selection.
2. When nifty fell >1.5% before budget - post budget nifty rises >2% in next 4 days -
@jitendrajain @yogeeswarpal
(1/4)
can use this data for taking a risk defined bullish position.
3. If we compare low post event and high post event.. On majority of occasions nifty has seen a recovery in next 4 days [average low is -1% and avg high 2.7%] - this also indicates on bullish side…
(2/4)
So can use this statistics for building your non-directional or directional strategy post budget..
statistically speaking,
1. long put or naked short futures don't make sense.
2. Can do bullish debit spreads or bullish credit spreads..
(3/4)
Read 7 tweets
24 Oct 20
Trending markets are very tough for the option seller. So working on something which could find calmness in chaos. what I realised solution to this could be your Risk management [Mathematics for me]. (1/n)
scenario 1:
with 60% success Rate on wining day you gain 30 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 4%. (2/n)
scenario 2:
keeping success Rate same at 60% - lets improve out winning days gain to 35 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 6%. (3/n)
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct 20
For pivot point enthusiast:
Have done some data analysis on where nifty opens and where it closes in terms of pivot points. Have used 2 parameters
Where nifty opens-[above pivot, above R1, below pivot, below S1]
Where nifty closes-[abv pivot, abv R1, below pivot, below S1] (1/5) Image
example looking at open location data : -
Opened above pivot - 44%
Opened below pivot - 30%,
Opened above R1 - 18%
Opened below S1 - 8%
If we further breakdown each category in to where nifty closed that day for each category [where it opened] we get few datapoints.. (2/5)
How to Read data?

(3/5) Image
Read 6 tweets
14 Oct 20
INFY result Trade: Sold 1160CE & 1120PE for combined premium of 80 points.. Result is overnight so will hedge this position with 1220Ce & 1060PE at 3PM today..
Idea here is being ready with plan.. how i think in such trades.
1) entry in trade...
2) hedge for the trade...
3) Plan to reduce the hedge cost..
4) Exit target [in profit] in case of Small move..
5) adjustment plan in case of bigger move..
and most important part is point 5
added hedge.. at cost of 35 points..
many people asked why to take risk..
In morning this hedge was available at 40 points and now i hedged at 35 points.. hope all got their answer.. now my risk is only 25 points on this trade..
Read 4 tweets
3 Aug 20
Thread on pre-earning trade:
Purpose : Earn from IV crush post result as uncertainty is over.
Which stocks: stocks with higher IVP(Iv percentile) and historical volatility lower then IV
Strategies: can do straddle or strangle / low risk iron fly or iron condor (1/n)
How i play? : iron fly for overnight results (save from gap up like wipro/infy) and
straddles for results during market hours
This all is available if you google it : but key is how you manage post result.
no standard way to react so have your plan ready before trade.(2/n)
Have all scenarios chalked out
Will explain with example of sbi trade:
Sbi result was in market hours.
Trade taken: sold 190 straddle for 23 RS.
Target: 4- 5 rs decay
Breakeven level: 213 & 167
(3/n)
Read 9 tweets
11 Jun 20
Have been using ichimoku for sometime and this is very useful tool fir swing tradin. I use it for swing trading. Will share few tricks which i use.
Ichimoku cloud [Span B] breakout and retest of cloud level are two great tool
given below are few recent examples
@jitendrajain
Zee- recent cloud breakout its retest and how trade entry taken on hourly chart. Image
Jindal steel cloud breakout and one way ride Image
Read 10 tweets

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