Thread on USDINR Trading:
Part of my capital i trade in USDINR - non-directional.
Past few months it traded in very narrow band - which is paradise for non-direction trading.
check chart.. last 3 months in just 2 Rs. Range
Today will share my December 2020 trade in USDINR
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Entry Date: 8th December [normally i take position 40 - 45DTE]
Trade: iron condor
Strikes: sold 74.5 Ce and 73.5 PE [Jan 21 expiry]
Hedge: bought 75.5Ce and 72.5PE [Jan 21 expiry]
qty: for illustration shown 100 lots..
margin needed : 1,81,000
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This is how pay off graph looks:
Risk reward: little under 1:1 [good for iron condors]
Adjustments: we are covered for 1 Rs on both sides. but in case of drastic move adjustments will be needed.
how to adjust: refer my video on youtube
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Current status: date 16th December
strategy in profit of 7,400 which is approx 4 % return on margin.
when to book ? typically when we get 7 -8% we can book part and tighten the hedge for balance..
Thread on budget day nifty movement:
Few data points for budget day. 1. Average range for day 2.4% - can use this range of intraday strike selection. 2. When nifty fell >1.5% before budget - post budget nifty rises >2% in next 4 days - @jitendrajain@yogeeswarpal
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can use this data for taking a risk defined bullish position. 3. If we compare low post event and high post event.. On majority of occasions nifty has seen a recovery in next 4 days [average low is -1% and avg high 2.7%] - this also indicates on bullish side…
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So can use this statistics for building your non-directional or directional strategy post budget..
statistically speaking, 1. long put or naked short futures don't make sense. 2. Can do bullish debit spreads or bullish credit spreads..
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Trending markets are very tough for the option seller. So working on something which could find calmness in chaos. what I realised solution to this could be your Risk management [Mathematics for me]. (1/n)
scenario 1:
with 60% success Rate on wining day you gain 30 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 4%. (2/n)
scenario 2:
keeping success Rate same at 60% - lets improve out winning days gain to 35 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 6%. (3/n)
For pivot point enthusiast:
Have done some data analysis on where nifty opens and where it closes in terms of pivot points. Have used 2 parameters
Where nifty opens-[above pivot, above R1, below pivot, below S1]
Where nifty closes-[abv pivot, abv R1, below pivot, below S1] (1/5)
example looking at open location data : -
Opened above pivot - 44%
Opened below pivot - 30%,
Opened above R1 - 18%
Opened below S1 - 8%
If we further breakdown each category in to where nifty closed that day for each category [where it opened] we get few datapoints.. (2/5)
INFY result Trade: Sold 1160CE & 1120PE for combined premium of 80 points.. Result is overnight so will hedge this position with 1220Ce & 1060PE at 3PM today..
Idea here is being ready with plan.. how i think in such trades. 1) entry in trade... 2) hedge for the trade... 3) Plan to reduce the hedge cost.. 4) Exit target [in profit] in case of Small move.. 5) adjustment plan in case of bigger move..
and most important part is point 5
added hedge.. at cost of 35 points..
many people asked why to take risk..
In morning this hedge was available at 40 points and now i hedged at 35 points.. hope all got their answer.. now my risk is only 25 points on this trade..
Thread on pre-earning trade:
Purpose : Earn from IV crush post result as uncertainty is over.
Which stocks: stocks with higher IVP(Iv percentile) and historical volatility lower then IV
Strategies: can do straddle or strangle / low risk iron fly or iron condor (1/n)
How i play? : iron fly for overnight results (save from gap up like wipro/infy) and
straddles for results during market hours
This all is available if you google it : but key is how you manage post result.
no standard way to react so have your plan ready before trade.(2/n)
Have all scenarios chalked out
Will explain with example of sbi trade:
Sbi result was in market hours.
Trade taken: sold 190 straddle for 23 RS.
Target: 4- 5 rs decay
Breakeven level: 213 & 167
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Have been using ichimoku for sometime and this is very useful tool fir swing tradin. I use it for swing trading. Will share few tricks which i use.
Ichimoku cloud [Span B] breakout and retest of cloud level are two great tool
given below are few recent examples @jitendrajain
Zee- recent cloud breakout its retest and how trade entry taken on hourly chart.