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16 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Guess it's time to post this again gist.github.com/guga31bb/f2a9b…
Yes this
Anyway KiRk Cousins is analytics
"The people you can reach are the people who are listening"

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More from @benbbaldwin

Computer Cowboy Profile picture
16 Dec
Taking a closer look at ESPN's win probability model and this spike in Cleveland's WP was caused by a 9 yard Baltimore run on 1st & 10, which caused CLE WP to go from 55% to 75%

????????????????
In ESPN's win probability model, a 4 yard Trace McSorley run on 1st & 10 with more than 13 minutes left increased Cleveland's win probability from 18% to 34%

??????????
Another fun one (h/t @jsnstz)

Packers with a 4% chance of winning down by 3 with 2nd & 10 from the opponent 47 with 45 seconds left
Read 6 tweets
Computer Cowboy Profile picture
15 Dec
Forgot the Chiefs offense was No. 3 in EPA/play in the games Alex Smith played in 2017.

Andy Reid really is a genius
Like seriously what in the
I think this is also possible!
Read 5 tweets
Computer Cowboy Profile picture
15 Dec
The logic behind it was explained well on the broadcast last night- it's more likely to succeed once than fail twice.

BUT....
My model actually thinks the Browns going for 2, down 8 last night was a bad decision- it didn't think the difference between being down 6 vs 7 was worth the additional risk Image
So I think it's time to cancel this chart (sorry whoever made the chart) because it assumes "convert 2 --> kick PAT" results in a win and that is obviously not the case
Read 5 tweets
Computer Cowboy Profile picture
14 Dec
Oh boy Image
Image
The actual article is also amazing fieldgulls.com/2020/12/13/221… Image
Read 5 tweets
Computer Cowboy Profile picture
20 Oct 19
Seahawks 4th & 3: attempt 53 yard field goal

Ravens 4th & 2: go for it, touchdown

Coaching matters
From a few weeks ago. lol.
The Seahawks, trailing by 7 points in the 4th quarter, just punted on 4th & 4 from their own 44 for a touchback
Read 6 tweets
Computer Cowboy Profile picture
10 Mar 19
Unless I'm missing something, this tweet doesn't make sense because if he doesn't sign the tag then he won't be playing any games at all
"They’ll only have him for another 16 games" is what would happen if he DID sign the tag, no long-term deal were reached, and he weren't tagged against next year.

So again, this tweet doesn't make sense
Note that this appears to be a change in strategy by Frank Clark's agent, who said this on the record in October 2018 espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…
Read 6 tweets

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