Our latest update on England admissions and deaths sees the 7 day MA for the former now above the previous second wave peak in mid Nov, and the current rate of growth is equivalent to a doubling time of around a month. There's considerable regional variation, covered later. 1/4 
Our estimate of R, based on admissions, may be levelling off at just under 1.2. As already noted though, this would imply doubling approximately every month, so is not a sustainable position at the current high level of admissions. 2/4
For deaths, after a few days where the 7DMA had levelled it has now clearly started to increase again, which is to be expected given the trend in admissions. Unfortunately we can expect this to continue and it is likely to reach a new second wave peak during the Xmas week. 3/4
Regionally, London continues to surge upwards, with over 50% growth in a week, representing a doubling time of every 10-11 days. Elsewhere, the SE, East and SW are all growing at around 30%, but further north increases are much lower and have flattened in the NW. 4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
