Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.
At national level, the 7-Day Moving Average for hospital admissions has now been falling for more than a week.
The regional picture is key to understanding the national dynamics - see detail below. 1/4
Our R estimate is based on hospital admissions and has fallen to around 0.9 for England as a whole.
Again, we emphasise that this is a composite of different regions with different patterns of infections. 2/4
The average number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals has risen to around 300 deaths per day, after a couple of days with higher numbers reported.
We hope and expect that this will plateau in the coming days, and then follow the admissions downward. 3/4
Regionally, the North, Midlands and SW are showing sustained strong falls and London appears to be "on the turn" in the last couple of days. The East is level, but the SE moving average is continuing to increase constantly, in contrast to the rest of the country. 4/4
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The Sat update on England admissions and deaths, starting with a continued upswing in admissions. The 7 day MA is up 18% on the week, a week ago it was just 9%. This appears to be a national trend, and is broadly consistent with the infection trend recently reported by REACT. 1/4
Consequently our estimate of R continues to rise, and is now approaching 1.2, after falling close to 1.0 a week ago. Was the dip last week due to half term, or maybe the recent increase is a result of last minute activity in anticipation of the second lockdown? 2/4
The regional picture for admissions confirms an upswing everywhere in the last few days, even the NW which had been falling at around 10% per week. The four southerly regions all saw their highest 2nd wave day yet reported today, so this isn't just an issue for the north. 3/4
Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.
At national level, hospital admissions are rising more quickly again, following a week when the 7-day moving average was increasing more slowly.
Regional picture is key to understanding this - see below. 1/4
The acceleration in the growth of hospital admissions means that our estimate of R has begun to rise again and is slightly above 1.1 at the last point we can estimate. 2/4
The deaths picture has also worsened in recent days, with larger numbers announced Tues, Weds and today.
We’re now averaging over 240 deaths a day in English hospitals. It’s remarkable that we already know about 260 deaths from 9 Nov; more to be announced in comings days. 3/4
The latest update on England admissions and deaths following the weekend catch-up of deaths. Admissions growth has slowed in the last few days, with the doubling time extending to around 3 weeks. Let's hope this slowdown is maintained in the coming days. 1/4
Similarly the increase in deaths has slowed from the doubling every 10 days we were seeing a week or so ago, once we adjust for estimated late reporting delays. Hopefully this will slow further in a week or so in line with the admissions figures above. 2/4
After a period of stability, our estimate of R has dipped a little to 1.2, consistent with the admissions slow down. It relates to mid Oct, so we should be starting to see some of the benefits of restrictions introduced around then, particularly in the North. 3/4
Here’s a roundup of some of the material we have produced or highlighted during this extraordinary week.
1. A short thread from @john_actuary examining the @imperialcollege#REACT antibody study. Antibody prevalence is decreasing, which might imply falling immunity.
2. There was no Mortality Monitor from the CMI this week (though one is due this Tuesday) but @ActuaryByDay analysed the latest @ONS weekly death statistics noting that deaths are above the five-year average.
3. We published a bulletin from @john_actuary on Tuesday, looking at hospital admissions. He estimates that just under 1-in-5 COVID-19 admissions is acquired in the hospital setting. He also concludes that the vast majority of admissions are “from COVID” not just “with COVID”.
Admissions were out late yesterday, so a Sunday update instead of England hospital admissions & deaths. Admissions dipped today, possibly a hopeful sign, but we saw a similar dip 14 days ago, so it's too early to form any conclusions. The doubling time is now around 18 days. 1/4
Weekend deaths are always lower, but nevertheless there appears to be a slight reduction in growth, from around 10 days to 14. This would be broadly consistent with admissions growth 2 weeks ago. The moving average is now over 160, after adjusting for reporting lags. 2/4
Our estimate of R continues to be very stable, and has been between 1.25 and 1.30 for 12 days now. Remember this is based on admissions and then working back to infection date, so relates to a period of between 2 and 3 weeks ago. 3/4