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David Henig Profile picture
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17 Dec, 7 tweets, 2 min read
At this stage you would hope it could be either.
On the other hand @Sime0nStylites and I have been discussing for a while the possibility of one last UK strop before agreeing to EU terms (sorry, both sides compromising)
I have mentioned this before but expect in any final deal some surprising UK wins. All part of the EU approach - win on the principles, close the deal, give out some goodies that actually help tie the other party in to the EU.
About that one last UK strop @Sime0nStylites... but half-hearted if you ask me.
Reckon the PM still hopes he somehow doesn't have to decide deal or no deal. No decision is ever final for the indecisive. But he'll probably go deal.
Theory. Johnson is no longer playing tough with the EU to convince anyone but himself that he fought as tough as he could.

However damaging that is for anyone trying to prepare.
Also a useful hint here as I thought might have been the case that part of the problem is UK resistance to committing to legal text what is agreed in principle. Which is a classic "have / haven't decided" situation. So not quite over yet in Johnson's mind.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
19 Dec
Areas of movement and areas of stickiness. Some of this is just normal trade deal haggling, some is more difficult. And all of it would normally take place over months rather than days.
The fundamental problem, that the UK thinks a trade deal is a fundamental right, whereas the EU always insist preferential access to their market only comes at a cost, remains unresolved, exacerbated by too many comments from sudden UK experts in EU trade policy.
Issues between the UK and EU can't possibly be resolved over the weekend. Too deep. But both sides can agree to paper over the cracks, the UK agreeing to the principle of cost, the EU smoothing it over with various practical facilitation. That's where the deal is.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Dec
This is very good on fish and related trade from @DanielThomasLDN - what it brings home is the way an enitre trading ecosystem changes on January 1. Deal or no-deal, the UK economy will be heavily affected. ft.com/content/b172dc…
The deeper economics goes like this - higher trade barriers typically lead to less competitive businesses in a country. But we need our business to be more competitive than ever to try to win business outside the EU. Brexit may lead to lower exports to the EU and other countries.
The varied world of services may however hold up better than expected. We are already highly competitive, and the barriers may be easier to get round than those in goods, at least in some areas. However, that is speculative, research in services trade is not great.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Dec
Deja vu comes round quicker than ever before in Brexit. This looks rather like last weekend when talks were supposedly faltering until, it seems, the UK blinked and we continued.

So here we are again. Usually Johnson gives way on things he says no PM could sign for, but 🤷‍♂️
Yes, you could well ask what international investors and businesses make of a country where the Prime Minister's whim will decide the fate of the largest trading relationship, and potentially 2% or so of GDP. Not a lot I would suggest.
It will be generally assumed in Brussels that the PM's words are just another embarrassing little strop prior to climbdown, and won't particularly change the EU's approach. If that's wrong, and he really means it, no deal. But experience suggests otherwise.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Dec
Yeah, right. A likely story I don't think. If a deal is worth doing on December 18th it isn't worth doing on January 2nd?
I mean I hate to accuse a Minister of not giving the whole truth to Parliament, but...
We recall that the UK government has agreed that there will be checks on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. So what exactly are we supposed to have won? A trusted trader scheme that was always on the cards?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Dec
The sense of Brexiteer opposition to concessions necessary to make a trade deal melting away through a combination of tiredness and increasing awareness of the realities to come. And we know the EU can close deals, they have more than anyone else.
The future question for the UK of whether we will learn from the experience, learn how to negotiate with the EU, or continue to listen to the partisan advisers whose advice was so badly wrong for four and a half years?
What did we gain from not coming to terms with EU asks earlier? Arguably there would have been more domestic opposition, as we weren't ready then to compromise. But perhaps then the lesson is we need to be internally united before negotiating?
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
16 Dec
Just as I was thinking we hadn't seen an update for a while... we're not quite there yet with a deal. And even further away in working out how you go from deal to implementation in 10 days including Christmas. (10 days for 1800 pages!).
I think this maybe more difficult than presented, if only because of concerns in the domestic constituencies of both sides of giving too much away to get a deal, with no proper ratification. That path to a deal might be getting pretty narrow.
Still probably just about 55:45 for a deal. Or maybe 52:48. But that is not at all comfortable given the timing.
Read 4 tweets

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