This is very good on fish and related trade from @DanielThomasLDN - what it brings home is the way an enitre trading ecosystem changes on January 1. Deal or no-deal, the UK economy will be heavily affected. ft.com/content/b172dc…
The deeper economics goes like this - higher trade barriers typically lead to less competitive businesses in a country. But we need our business to be more competitive than ever to try to win business outside the EU. Brexit may lead to lower exports to the EU and other countries.
The varied world of services may however hold up better than expected. We are already highly competitive, and the barriers may be easier to get round than those in goods, at least in some areas. However, that is speculative, research in services trade is not great.
We have seen surprisingly little written about how the UK economy will be changed by Brexit. Not the headline numbers, but the composition, the trade that won't happen, the adjustments. These queues say - big change is coming...
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1339851685666144258
This is one possible avenue - reconvergence by stealth. But damage will have been done.
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1339862470073135104
Goods trade with the EU and closely linked countries - $490 billion per year.
Next 3: US - £105 billion. China - £73 billion. Japan - £17 billion.
The scale of the rise in trade barriers to come is unprecedented. The most significant anti-free trade policy in the UK ever?
Next 3: US - £105 billion. China - £73 billion. Japan - £17 billion.
The scale of the rise in trade barriers to come is unprecedented. The most significant anti-free trade policy in the UK ever?
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