Areas of movement and areas of stickiness. Some of this is just normal trade deal haggling, some is more difficult. And all of it would normally take place over months rather than days.
The fundamental problem, that the UK thinks a trade deal is a fundamental right, whereas the EU always insist preferential access to their market only comes at a cost, remains unresolved, exacerbated by too many comments from sudden UK experts in EU trade policy.
Issues between the UK and EU can't possibly be resolved over the weekend. Too deep. But both sides can agree to paper over the cracks, the UK agreeing to the principle of cost, the EU smoothing it over with various practical facilitation. That's where the deal is.
The UKs fundamental red line, sovereignty, only means what the government want it to mean, so can be flexed accordingly. If Johnson does decide he wants the deal on offer, which remains as it has been all year the only real question.
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"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail" has gone from being an irritating statement trotted out on a training course to a description of the UK government's modus operandi. And as well as on covid restrictions we're seeing it in EU negotiations - deal or no-deal. And here's why... 1/
The UK's goal in EU negotiations is to declare victory / sovereignty. Sounds good. But the problem is that there will always be winners and losers in a big trade deal, because it covers everything and involves compromising with the other side. An immediate problem. 2/
Take fish, on which apparently talks are stuck. No deal means we regain full control of our waters. Victory! And sell the fish where? EU tariffs and checks. Not victory. So share waters? But then, defeat! Point being, if you don't explain, the result will disappoint. 3/
Two decisions in one day or even week from the PM is probably a bit ambitious.
And even I, sitting on the fence all year as to deal or not, based on the PMs legendary indecision, thought it might have happened by 11 days before the end of the transition period.
Though business has been preparing for no-deal (no choice) and voting with their lorries so to speak.
What a way not to run the country though. 2% of GDP, tariffs, and the car manufacturing sector among others waiting.
Still a chance this is one last getting tough with the EU Sunday headline before a deal, but equally the failure of the PM to reach a decision is beginning to confound all possible analysis.
This is very good on fish and related trade from @DanielThomasLDN - what it brings home is the way an enitre trading ecosystem changes on January 1. Deal or no-deal, the UK economy will be heavily affected. ft.com/content/b172dc…
The deeper economics goes like this - higher trade barriers typically lead to less competitive businesses in a country. But we need our business to be more competitive than ever to try to win business outside the EU. Brexit may lead to lower exports to the EU and other countries.
The varied world of services may however hold up better than expected. We are already highly competitive, and the barriers may be easier to get round than those in goods, at least in some areas. However, that is speculative, research in services trade is not great.
Deja vu comes round quicker than ever before in Brexit. This looks rather like last weekend when talks were supposedly faltering until, it seems, the UK blinked and we continued.
So here we are again. Usually Johnson gives way on things he says no PM could sign for, but 🤷♂️
Yes, you could well ask what international investors and businesses make of a country where the Prime Minister's whim will decide the fate of the largest trading relationship, and potentially 2% or so of GDP. Not a lot I would suggest.
It will be generally assumed in Brussels that the PM's words are just another embarrassing little strop prior to climbdown, and won't particularly change the EU's approach. If that's wrong, and he really means it, no deal. But experience suggests otherwise.
On the other hand @Sime0nStylites and I have been discussing for a while the possibility of one last UK strop before agreeing to EU terms (sorry, both sides compromising)
I have mentioned this before but expect in any final deal some surprising UK wins. All part of the EU approach - win on the principles, close the deal, give out some goodies that actually help tie the other party in to the EU.
We recall that the UK government has agreed that there will be checks on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. So what exactly are we supposed to have won? A trusted trader scheme that was always on the cards?