Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Dec 18 to Dec 24 -
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic 7-day-forecasting for 209 countries and territories. Maps and more data available on:
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21 -IMPORTANT NOTE: Without providing explanations @ECDC_EU has decided to stop collecting worldwide data on daily basis. We are therefore no more in position to deliver our daily epidemic forecasting from this European source of data. We'll continue with JHU data (origin: USA)

3/21. Ireland is rising again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.18), having left its safety zone, at medium level, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Staggered easing of lockdown restrictions.

4/21. France has stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.07), rising from medium to high (by the week-end) levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/21 - Belgium has stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.06), rising at high levels of activity, with decreasing but still very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. Italy is slowing down too early in its landing towards the #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.92), at high levels of activity, plateauing at alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/21. Switzerland is losing control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.04), at high levels of activity.
Maps and more details for 7 cantons in:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1338800827612467201?s=20

Slow decrease in mortality, but still at very high levels, for 7 more days.

8/21. Germany has lost control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.12), rising at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Soft lockdown announced from Wedneday.

9/21. The UK has lost control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.20), experiencing a surge at high levels, with decreasing but still very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
mRNA vaccine approved (ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…): 137,000 people vaccinated to date.

10/21. The Netherlands has lost control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.21), with a surge in cases at high levels (exceeding in size the recent peak of the second wave), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Partial lockdown extended to Christmas.

11/21. Denmark has lost control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.27), with a surge in cases at high levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

12/21. Tunisia is plateauing at medium levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), at medium level of activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

13/21. South Africa, which enters in its summer season, will experience a surge in #COVID19 cases (R-eff=1.28), from medium to high (by next mid-week) levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. Israel will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.19), losing control at high level of activity, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Considering for a 3rd lockdown, but no decision yet.

15/21. Russia is close to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), at medium levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Russia begins vaccination campaign with Spoutnik V (no figures reported).

16/21. Japan, although in its #COVID19 safety zone (< 3,000 cases/day), is foreseen to increase in epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), with very low levels of mortality.
Insights on

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20

Incl. details of its backward tracing strategy

17/21. South Korea is facing seasonal pressure from the virus at sustained pace (R-eff=1.24), but is still foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with<1,400 cases/day), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Canada is close to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at medium levels, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.
Forecast for 4 provinces available in the thread:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1338843550105161733?s=20

mRNA vaccine approved.

19/21. The USA are close to take over control of their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), rising at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Forecast for 7 states in the embedded thread:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1338851108320661508?s=20

mRNA vaccine approved

20/21. Brazil will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Uruguay, will experience, entering in its summer season, a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.26), at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard with #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, at least for 7 more days.

23/21.
Read forecasting for other countries by following @KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

24/21 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortaltiy > 3.0