Why, you might ask, if the EU priority in negotiations was to protect the single market, is Brussels allowing issue of fish to endanger the whole deal? EU always knew it needed to compromise on fish so che pasa? #Brexit /1
Thing is, level playing field is worth a lot more in monetary and political terms to EU BUT it sounds quite abstract to voters. Fishermen and women losing their jobs, industries dwindling .. that would be very visible very quickly - this elevates importance of fishing rights /2
In coastal countries where governments fear public backlash if it’s perceived they’ve sacrificed national fishing communities for a deal with U.K. /3
A further complication is that one EU coastal nation doesn’t see why it has to lose out more than another in this deal. Spaniards and Dutch fish more off Cornwall, north of Scotland. France, in Channel. So there are internal EU tensions, not only with U.K. /4
Although majority of EU members are not coastal nations, and although EVERYONE in EU would love to finally put this deal to bed (for political/financial reasons but also because they’re plain fed up with the process) the EU as a whole won’t try to force member states to sign /5
If unhappy. Remember the signing of the Withdrawal Agreement? It got held up last minute because Spain was unhappy with wording pertaining to Gibraltar. Other EU countries were hugely irritated with Madrid but it was accepted no one would sign till everyone was happy to sign /6
Michel Barnier spoke to EU coastal countries today to try to find compromise position but..Because of the nothing-is-agreed-until-everything-is-agreed mantra of negotiations, the EU mood this afternoon is less optimistic about prospect of imminent breakthrough than 2 days ago /7
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NEW: Notes of careful optimism in EU off-record briefings .. Not just the public ‘maybe, possibly, but let’s see’ of the European Commission President in front of the European Parliament this morning /1
EU sources saying U.K. has accepted the idea of ‘managed divergence’ in exchange for preferential access to single market. Ie if U.K. divergences from EU standards (which U.K. gov demands as its post #Brexit ‘sovereign right’) then EU has right to retaliate eg with tariffs /2
Obvs right to retaliate would go both ways eg if U.K. views EU businesses as having unfair advantage after Brussels changed standards. Still to be agreed: what mechanism to judge whether unfair advantage exists or not.. EU has accepted it can’t take unilateral action /3
What does it mean "to go the extra mile"? That's the distance Boris Johnson and the European Commission chief have promised to travel over next days. Will the road take them to deal or no-deal? And who will compromise on what to get there? #Brexit /1
EU contacts close to the talks say both sides are being constructive. They insist negotiations aren't simply continuing because neither the EU, nor the government want to be blamed in a no-deal scenario and prefer not to walk away first. /2
EU is clear: No deal is a big deal. It would have a dramatic impact on livelihoods both sides of the Channel . As long as talks aren't going backwards, Brussels says it would be “irresponsible” not to go for it in talks /3
So can a deal be reached between the EU and UK by Sunday, despite the pervading mood of gloom plus a sense – in public at least – that both sides are digging in their heels? It’s difficult but possible #Brexit /1
Today the European Commission chief hit back at the EU-is-in-denial-about-UK-sovereignty claim.Yes, she said, EU was insisting on what it views as ‘fair competition’ rules in exchange for giving the UK preferential access to the single market (tariff +quota free) but she added/2
that UK would remain free – “sovereign, if you wish” were the words she used – to decide what it wanted to do. If UK diverged the EU "would simply adapt conditions for access to our market. It would be the decision of the UK and would apply vice versa,” she said /3
Merkel speaking to Bundestag about #Brexit Insistent on not compromising the single market to get a deal. Says not sure whether clarity will emerge by tomorrow ie after this evening’s Johnson/von der Leyen dinner in Brussels /1
Important to see here there are no serious Franco/German splits over the current impasse in negotiations. True: Merkel possibly keener on deal being done than Macron. He still hopes France can wrest some business benefits out of ‘a bad situation’. Hopes too that .. /2
His tough stance on fish and public threat of using a veto on a deal that’s ‘not in France’s long term interest’ will play well for him at home politically BUT EU countries all pretty much United behind Barnier’s declaration not to ‘sacrifice the future for the present’ /3
Mire pizza anyone? EU+UK negotiators will work late into the night tonight as they did last night, I’m told. “This is the big push”. EU sources predict the “bulk of outstanding work” on deal could be done in next 24 hours BUT that fine-tuning could take a few more days #Brexit /1
More EU negotiators are making their way to London this afternoon. This, in itself, isn’t remarkable - there can be lots of shuttling between London and Brussels on negotiating weeks BUT the timing makes everything noteworthy right now /2
EU sources tell me that even if/when the outline of a deal is there, there will most likely be a meeting between the PM and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. EU member states could then veto the deal IF they’re unhappy.. /3
Am told Barnier was ‘in good spirits’ when reported back to EU ambassadors this morning on state of play in negotiations ongoing in London BUT that he has ‘reached the edges of his mandate’ and has little more room for manoeuvre in talks with U.K. “Only millimetres left” /1
Of course you’d expect the EU side to say this. But there is a deeply-held belief here that U.K. must now move considerably on 3 STILL OUTSTANDING issues: fish, competition rules, governance- in order for there to be a deal this year /2
EU countries jumpy about concessions being made to U.K. “This is the painful part” said one EU ambassador BUT I don’t detect mistrust in Barnier and team in my conversations.NB Barnier didn’t ask EU countries for more flexibility in negotiating mandate this morning /3