Phil Syrpis Profile picture
18 Dec, 7 tweets, 2 min read
This is a good piece from @anandMenon1 and @jillongovt. It makes a lot of important points. But it has a (for me...) strange conclusion. 1/7
First, we are indeed in the realms *not* of the UK having 'membership' of the single market, but instead of it only having an FTA. If there's a deal, the differences will become obvious very soon. 2/7
Second, it is also right to say that the 'threat' from the UK, armed with an FTA, to the integrity of the single market, isn't that great, and also that the level-playing field isn't as level as all that. 3/7
The key question is what terms should the UK and EU agree to in order to sign off on the FTA, and avoid no-deal.

As the piece says: 'the EU is, of course, perfectly entitled to press the UK to sign up to stringent level playing field provisions.' 4/7
My thought is that this stringent approach is the result of a) the relative power of the EU; and importantly b) the stance adopted by the UK through the negotiations. 5/7
The UK has, at various times, insisted that the point of Brexit is the freedom to set its own standards - to be free of EU constraints. The Singapore-on-Thames model has fans in Govt. The Internal Market Bill shows its willingness to breach international law. 6/7
The EU has responded by making the text of any deal as stringent as it can.

Had the negotiations been conducted differently, there may well have been a different outcome, relying on more trust, cooperation, etc. But that's not on the table now. 7/7

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More from @syrpis

10 Dec
10 mins in front of the news was enough to drive me to intense frustration.

The Tory party 'line to take' today is that the unbridgeable divide is the result of the failure of the EU to recognise that the UK is an independent sovereign state.

It is nonsense. THREAD. 1/11
Brexit involves the UK making a sovereign decision to leave the EU. And, in January 2020 the UK duly left the EU. 2/11
As a member of the EU, the UK was part of the single market. The single market is a complex web of rules and presumptions which seeks to eliminate trade barriers between the EU member states. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
8 Dec
There are a lot of Brexiters in the media this week making points about sovereignty, and about how the EU has not come to terms with the UK's independence.

I have some questions, which it might well be fruitful to ask them. 1/9
1. How do you understand the concept of sovereignty? What are the circumstances in which you might agree to make binding commitments to other independent states or trading blocs? 2/
2. What sort of commitments are you prepared to make in order to get trade deals with other states/blocs? And, to what end (why not trade on Australian-style terms with the wider world)? 3/
Read 9 tweets
7 Dec
One of the root causes of the Govt's Brexit difficulties is that it has overpromised.

We can, it is said, reclaim our sovereignty, with the freedom to make our own rules, and, at the same time, retain many of the advantages of EU membership. 1/14
The reality is that we cannot.

Unless we agree to certain standards and rules (and there is scope to argue about which rules), there will be borders, and checks, and tariffs. 2/
There will always be a relationship between rights (eg tariff free access to EU/UK markets) and responsibilities (eg abiding by level-playing field commitments). 3/
Read 12 tweets
30 Nov
The Govt's COVID analysis (attached) is, on first reading, very thin indeed.

Those looking for justifications for the restrictions in the various tiers will be disappointed. 1/4

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The Govt makes a strong case for continuing with restrictions and for the dangers of 'letting it rip'.

But it does nothing to explain why the particular decisions on education, sports, pubs, and household mixing have been made. 2/4
I would surprised if appeases any of the potential rebels... and think that the pressure to lift restrictions for particular sectors, and regions, will likely increase. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov
The Govt, the Opposition, and the real Opposition. Some thoughts on Govt, Labour and the ERG/CRG.

Thread. 1/16
This is a Govt which is interested in the pursuit, and retention, of power (see this blog). It aims for short-term popularity, and is acutely sensitive to the public mood. 2/

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/02…
Its policies on the 2 big issues of the day - Brexit and COVID-19 - have not been successful.

We have not secured an easy trade deal with the UK and are facing a very hard Brexit, deal or no deal.

Both deaths and the economic damage from the virus are world-beating. 3/
Read 16 tweets
24 Nov
Lots of talk again today about @UKLabour's positioning on Brexit.

I don't think that finding the right path as complicated as many seem to believe. Thread. 1/19 (sorry it is so long!)
Big picture. We have left the EU. A deal will, or will not, be done in the next month. We are facing either a 'hard Brexit' deal, or 'no deal'. There is no prospect of a 'soft Brexit' (customs union and/or single market membership). 2/
This, from @AntonSpisak on 'what to look for in any deal' is an excellent summary of the - many - live issues.

4/
Read 18 tweets

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