Thread by @McFaul

On Russian power, a few sentences from “Putin, Putinism, and the Domestic Determinants of Russian Foreign Policy." mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.11… THREAD/ 1.

"Regarding military power, Russia has substantially greater capabilities in 2020 compared to 1992 with its modernizing nuclear arsenal, new missile defense and space capabilities, and a vastly expanded conventional military budget." 2/

"Russian conventional military power in the European theater is particularly threatening. As one of two nuclear superpowers, Russia far outpaces China, France, and the United Kingdom. Russian military doctrine also has modernized." 3/

During the last two decades, its intelligence and cyber capabilities have grown immensely, positioning Russia as one of the world’s top three countries in these domains. 4/

"Despite trailing well behind the United States and China, Russia is currently the world’s eleventh largest economy, and ranked sixth if using Purchasing Power Party (PPP) numbers." [Russia's GDP per capita is higher than China's] 5/

The state’s role in the economy has grown considerably over the last two decades, giving Putin greater control over these resources compared to his Western counterparts…. These economic capabilities... are sufficient to enable the pursuit of ambitious foreign policy objectives.6

"Russia has reemerged as an influential ideational actor. Putin’s orthodox illiberalism appeals to millions around the world, including heads of states, political parties, religious organizations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and individuals." 7/

"The Kremlin has devoted extensive resources to improving access to government-owned or government-friendly television networks, radio, and media in the Russian-speaking world, particularly in countries that gained independence after the Soviet Union’s collapse." 8/

"With an annual budget of more than $300 million, RT claims to be the most-watched news channel on YouTube. In 2014, Putin merged the radio broadcasting service Voice of Russia and the news agency Ria Novosti to create Sputnik International .. to provide “alternative news” 9/

to Western sources. The Russian state and its proxies have created numerous organizations and fake personages, including most famously the Internet Research Agency (IRA)." 10/

"The Kremlin also has created numerous parastatal organizations ... as well as cultivated direct contacts with NGOs, religious groups, and political parties around the world through scholarships, conferences, and sometimes direct financial assistance." 11/

"Putin has courted like-minded leaders, including Prime Minister Andrej Babiš in the Czech Republic, Nigel Farage in the United Kingdom, Marine Le Pen in France, Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary, Matteo Salvini in Italy, and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands." 12/

In addition, Putin brazenly uses Russian power against U.S. interests to a greater degree than any other world leader -- annexation, intervention in ME civil wars, violating US sovereignty to influence elections, assassinations abroad, and now this latest cyber attack. 13/

After climate change and China, Russia should rank 3rd on the Biden's team list of national security challenges. In some ways, containing (and at times engaging) Putin's Russia is an even more immediate threat. (Read the whole article for more!) 14/ END THREAD.