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Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
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19 Dec, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Most likely scenario in municipal elections in Mumbai. Sena fighting 130 odd and Congress less than 100 might be unacceptable to both. So seat adjustment in polls and post poll alliance might be the game
In mixed population ward, if BJP candidate was a Gujarati or Hindi bhashik; Congress would field a similar candidate to cause vote division. This would enable the Sena candidate dependent on Marathi votes to scrape through.
Plus Sena and Congress would make deals on wards. For example Waikar of Sena and Naseem Khan of Congress would make a deal to leave Jogeshwari wards to Sena and Chandivali/Powai wards to Congress.
Sena would not mobilize voters where alliance partner BJP would fight
However most of these tricks wont work effectively as Hindus dont vote for Congress in Mumbai anymore. Modi and Yogi have ensured that most Hindi bhashik voters vote for the BJP now. Reason for Congress failing in Mumbai nowadays
Fighting separately could mean the muslim vote might not he effectively mobilized for the Sena, which might have happened in alliance with the Congress

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More from @MandarSawant184

Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
21 Dec
MVA govt n Uddhav opposed Modi's pet project bullet train despite knowing that Mumbai - Ahmedabad is just the first stage of Mumbai - Ahmedabad - Delhi route.
Then u unwisely move the metro yard from best location Aarey to unwieldy Kanjur marg knowing litigation
Centre has always been claiming the land through salt department. It is not a new stand after 2019. But still CM did this only coz his son wanted it this way.
Now when courts have stopped the work, and no other solution seems possible Uddhav is talking of reconciliation on this.
They hope to strike a bargain on the bullet train project and Kanjur marg metro yard. Knowing Modi this does not seem possible. But MVA is still trying by putting name of Pawar into this.
Pawar himself may be using this opportunity to talk to Modi on other issues as well
Read 4 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
5 Dec
Simple rule why Modi govt is unlikely to rollback farm laws and may choose middle path of giving concessions to farm lobby,
These farm laws have started helping farmers in multiple states. Anecdotal evidence suggests that mandi volumes are decreasing. 1/n
Farmers are already benefitting in terms of prices they get as private players are buying outside APMCs. Taxes saved due to out of APMC trades leads to some more price benefit being passed to farmers.

So rolling back the farm bills could actually cost votes to Modi govt. 2/n
And electoral cost is something which no political party or leader will unnecessary pay.
Why pander to protesting farmers who are unlikely to vote for you (in Punjab) and unnecessarily antagonize farmers who are your base.
This is a no brainer. 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
24 Oct
Let us blame Sena of giving poor governance and being stupid in trying to get open vendetta against those opposing it. They never had the brains. But you cannot fault them for self preservation.
Alliance with BJP benefitted them a lot in the start and even now in LS/VS seat count
But there was a cost. BJP is steadily pushing out Sena from areas where it was dominant earlier.2 examples are Dahisar and Goregaon where BJP won in 2014 defeating Sena big leaders.BJP retained those seats in 2019 in the alliance seat sharing. And will win them even in BJP vs MVA
Even in Bhandup where Sena was the major party, new demographic changes due to high rises that have come up on LBS road have allowed BJP to win 2 corporators there unthinkable some time ago). Same thing is happening in Thane, Navi Mumbai, Panvel and many other places in MMR
Read 5 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
24 Oct
My two cents on the story of Geeta Jain @connectGEETA joining Sena. She was a BJP rebel who fought n won Mira Bhayander seat in 2019.
She got the sympathy of BJP voters due to her I'll treatment by unpopular sitting BJP MLA and candidate Narendra Mehta
If Jain is now joining Sena then these are some factors,
1. Short term gains, funds for ger constituency and one more reason could be her husband is a builder.
2. She feels this MCA govt is here to stay for atleast two more years. So why waste the post in opposition
3. She thinks she could win in the next election on a Sena ticket, but which seems difficult to me given the demography.
4. Sena has burnt a lot of bridges with non Marathi voters (and even a lot of Marathi voters) due to SSR and Kangana case.Could be attempt by Penguin to expand
Read 6 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
22 Oct
Let me tell u my story. I hold Union Bank (IPO Rs.16), UCO Bank (IPO Rs.12), Vijaya and IOB (FPO Rs. 24 each).
Bought in paper format in 2002-03 n never dematerialised it.
Stocks went up in bull runs. Union Bank went upto 400+ at one point

1/n
Never sold it and converted to demat only 2 years ago.
Though dividend earning got me to earn 5x to 10x on these stocks. Still hold them (though now some have merged n got other PSU Bank stocks). Quantities I held were small and so playing snakes n ladders did not impact me 2/n
Unless ur a fan of quick trading, always buy good stocks n forget them. These PSU Banks were not bad till UPA 2 phone a friend destroyed them.
From 2009-13, I collected significant qty in IOC n HPCL on news of fuel price decontrol. They gave 2-4x
returns. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
12 Oct
In the light of Metro 3 realignment let me tell you a story on how BJP govt led by Fadnavis planned the metro network in Mumbai well from a traffic management point of view and political point of view. Of course everything is political.
While the BJP supporters/ most Mumbaikar commuters lament Metro 3 yard change, Sena supporters and some other Mumbaikars celebrate and a lot of others talk if it, this is not the first Mumbai metro project started by erstwhile BJP govt
The Metro 3 is no doubt the crown piece of the entire Mumbai metro network being the first fully underground metro network in the country. But the first two metro lines were planned between Dahisar (northern suburbs) to Andheri (western suburbs) on either side of Western railway
Read 13 tweets

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