Simple rule why Modi govt is unlikely to rollback farm laws and may choose middle path of giving concessions to farm lobby,
These farm laws have started helping farmers in multiple states. Anecdotal evidence suggests that mandi volumes are decreasing. 1/n
Farmers are already benefitting in terms of prices they get as private players are buying outside APMCs. Taxes saved due to out of APMC trades leads to some more price benefit being passed to farmers.

So rolling back the farm bills could actually cost votes to Modi govt. 2/n
And electoral cost is something which no political party or leader will unnecessary pay.
Why pander to protesting farmers who are unlikely to vote for you (in Punjab) and unnecessarily antagonize farmers who are your base.
This is a no brainer. 3/n
Having said that some concessions may be given to protesting farmers just to mollify them and to be seen as fair. Which is perfect as discussions need to yield middle ground.
However if the protestors stick to scrapping farm laws, they wont get anything.
n/n

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More from @MandarSawant184

24 Oct
Let us blame Sena of giving poor governance and being stupid in trying to get open vendetta against those opposing it. They never had the brains. But you cannot fault them for self preservation.
Alliance with BJP benefitted them a lot in the start and even now in LS/VS seat count
But there was a cost. BJP is steadily pushing out Sena from areas where it was dominant earlier.2 examples are Dahisar and Goregaon where BJP won in 2014 defeating Sena big leaders.BJP retained those seats in 2019 in the alliance seat sharing. And will win them even in BJP vs MVA
Even in Bhandup where Sena was the major party, new demographic changes due to high rises that have come up on LBS road have allowed BJP to win 2 corporators there unthinkable some time ago). Same thing is happening in Thane, Navi Mumbai, Panvel and many other places in MMR
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
My two cents on the story of Geeta Jain @connectGEETA joining Sena. She was a BJP rebel who fought n won Mira Bhayander seat in 2019.
She got the sympathy of BJP voters due to her I'll treatment by unpopular sitting BJP MLA and candidate Narendra Mehta
If Jain is now joining Sena then these are some factors,
1. Short term gains, funds for ger constituency and one more reason could be her husband is a builder.
2. She feels this MCA govt is here to stay for atleast two more years. So why waste the post in opposition
3. She thinks she could win in the next election on a Sena ticket, but which seems difficult to me given the demography.
4. Sena has burnt a lot of bridges with non Marathi voters (and even a lot of Marathi voters) due to SSR and Kangana case.Could be attempt by Penguin to expand
Read 6 tweets
22 Oct
Let me tell u my story. I hold Union Bank (IPO Rs.16), UCO Bank (IPO Rs.12), Vijaya and IOB (FPO Rs. 24 each).
Bought in paper format in 2002-03 n never dematerialised it.
Stocks went up in bull runs. Union Bank went upto 400+ at one point

1/n

Never sold it and converted to demat only 2 years ago.
Though dividend earning got me to earn 5x to 10x on these stocks. Still hold them (though now some have merged n got other PSU Bank stocks). Quantities I held were small and so playing snakes n ladders did not impact me 2/n
Unless ur a fan of quick trading, always buy good stocks n forget them. These PSU Banks were not bad till UPA 2 phone a friend destroyed them.
From 2009-13, I collected significant qty in IOC n HPCL on news of fuel price decontrol. They gave 2-4x
returns. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
12 Oct
In the light of Metro 3 realignment let me tell you a story on how BJP govt led by Fadnavis planned the metro network in Mumbai well from a traffic management point of view and political point of view. Of course everything is political.
While the BJP supporters/ most Mumbaikar commuters lament Metro 3 yard change, Sena supporters and some other Mumbaikars celebrate and a lot of others talk if it, this is not the first Mumbai metro project started by erstwhile BJP govt
The Metro 3 is no doubt the crown piece of the entire Mumbai metro network being the first fully underground metro network in the country. But the first two metro lines were planned between Dahisar (northern suburbs) to Andheri (western suburbs) on either side of Western railway
Read 13 tweets
20 Sep
#Prediction In 3-4 years time, many young/ middle aged professionals would have turned farmers after quitting their high paying jobs.
Practical approach. They would have earned decently to ensure their future. Going away from high stress jobs. Plus now the #FarmBills are approved
So they dont have to engage with the slimy political/ trader types one can expect to encounter in the APMCs. These people working in the corporate world would be more comfortable doing contract farming or creating their own linkages to sell their produce
In MH, this phenomenon would be mainly seen in Western MH where professionals working in Mumbai or Pune would love to return to their roots and lead a less hectic life (Not to say farming is an easy profession). The rest of the regions of MH could also see this trend
Read 5 tweets
15 Sep
Shiv Sena has alienated 40% Hindi, Gujarati, Rajasthani, Tamil, Telugu and Kannada speaking voters of Mumbai.
The 35% Marathi voters are not backing them fully. A large chunk of middle class and upper middle class Marathi speaking voters is now abhorring the actions of Sena.
So what's the option now. Sena needs the 22% muslim voters of Mumbai (who are heavily ghettoized and therefore less effective despite their numbers) to retain their control of BMC.
Hence you wont hear any announcements about renaming Aurangabad to Sambhajinagar (old Sena demand)
Frankly they cannot afford to do that. Also Sena might need to ally with Congress and NCP to ensure the muslim votebank does not split and BJP does not go closer to majority.

So seems the Sena now needs Cong more in Mumbai and the NCP in surrounding MMR area
Read 6 tweets

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