A great read by @AbrahmL in @nytimes on how Russia might win from climate change, and how it can handle potential migration from China. The story has lots of interesting facts, and features Sergey Karaganov's bear skin. Couple of additional points... 1/ nytimes.com/interactive/20…
2/ The article describes 🇷🇺government attitude towards climate change as overwhelmingly positive due to new farming potential in Siberia/FarEast, and cites @RodSchoonover who describes potential "🇷🇺 agricultural dominance" as an "underappreciated geopolitical threat"
3/ Of course, I'm not a climate expert, but based on my limited knowledge talking to 🇷🇺 officials, Moscow's view on climate change is much more nuanced and increasingly focused on risks. Good starting point is President Putin's speech at Valdai: en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
4/ "[Climate change] is a huge challenge including to Russia, where permafrost occupies 65% of our territory. Such changes can do irreparable damage to biological diversity, have an extremely adverse effect on the economy and infrastructure and pose a direct threat to people."
5/ I hear that the @Norilsk_Nickel fuel spill this year had a profound impact on the Kremlin's thinking about climate change. See this accurate and well-researched dispatch by @maxseddon in the @FT: ft.com/content/fa9c20…
6/ This is why the new job for @achubays is not only about building a channel to @JohnKerry (as @aavst describes it), but about addressing a problem that Mr. Putin sees as very real (I hear that @novakav1, too, may play a role in international engagement on climate change).
7/ On potential "inevitable" migration of Chinese and others to Siberia as result of climate change, and that "strategy of accommodating migrants would almost certainly be more to Russia’s benefit than one that attempts to keep them out..."
8/... 🇷🇺 government's opinion is very different, and, from Moscow's viewpoint, the risks of letting Asian migrants into Siberia in large numbers outweigh potential economic benefits (let alone that the aging in 🇨🇳 may not provide big numbers of potential migrants by 2050).
9/ The solution to the workforce issue in agriculture is, well, technological progress. 🇷🇺 agricultural sector needs far less people now than, say, a century ago, and might need even less 20 years from now.
10/ Finally, because of COVID-19 Russia is already learning (and successfully!) to live without Chinese migrant labor in the Far East, and this story is well-documented in an excellent piece by Ivan Zuenko for @CarnegieRussia. END carnegie.ru/commentary/834…
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