@Billy__Grove@KernNoris@KrutikaKuppalli@itosettiMD_MBA@Moderna Mutations are completely random, there's no rhyme or reason behind them. Only the ones that are similar/better than original will survive, rest will be completed out (Darwin's survival of fittest). (1/)
@Billy__Grove@KernNoris@KrutikaKuppalli@itosettiMD_MBA@Moderna But what can happen over time as a virus gets more virulent, which is to it's advantage one would think, is that at one point, it'll become so virulent, ie disease causing, that the host would become sicker sooner so transmission to next individual becomes lesser likely (2/)
@Billy__Grove@KernNoris@KrutikaKuppalli@itosettiMD_MBA@Moderna And because viruses need hosts (us) to make copies, there's a cliff of fitness after which it is to the virus' disadvantage to keep getting "better" at causing disease. This is when the virus will naturally fade away. (3/)
@Billy__Grove@KernNoris@KrutikaKuppalli@itosettiMD_MBA@Moderna In this case, SARS-Cov2 has struck a fine balance and is able to transmit (to some extent through the initial period of asymptomaticity even if eventually severe) plus cause disease in a small but significant % of infected hosts. So in a way, beauty of evolution at work (4/4)
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A (very long) thread on testing, the current scenario, and what ails us from testing more.
TL;DR version - unlikely to be able to do mass-scale testing w status quo. Need to experiment w currently avl test, or develop radically new tests. (1/n)
The WHO mantra has been "Test, test and test"+"test, track and trace". Test=genetic test btw, not serology. Great idea, and I'd say thats how China, Korea managed to keep the lid on. BUT they caught it early, so worked. Why are other countries struggling to ramp up tests? (2/n)
For contact tracing to work, you need to identify every last case. Easier when you have fewer cases ("catch cases early! stop the spread!!" sounds familiar?). Else, there's way too many silent, asymptomatic spreaders to track. So, end up having to test most/full populations (3/n)
Starting a thread for new #SARSCoV2 ideas that we have been brainstorming amongst friends. Calling for inputs, suggestions and help getting someone to try developing in the lab if it makes sense.
First one now is a yeast/bacteria based diagnostic test
One main constraint in current RTPCR/serology tests is supply of physical materials (RNA extraction reagents etc) and trained personnel. Need POC quick tests. What about a microbe that gives a colorimetric readout? Interested? Read on..
The virus uses both ACE2 (receptor) and TMPRSS2 (protease) to enter human cells. Presumably, and this I dont know for sure, the virus is bound to both simultaneously (atleast for some fraction of time). Critical to the idea
With the ongoing Covid-19 situation, there are some questions repeatedly going around:
-"How did China, Korea etc manage to create a test for a completely novel virus so fast?"
-"Why are rest of the world so slow?"
-"What happened in the US with the first test being faulty?"
I am going to try to explain the test here. Buckle up for some #scicomm
To answer these questions, we first need to understand how the test works. It tests whether the genetic material unique to the virus is present in the patient sample.
Coronaviruses, of which Covid-19 is just one kind, all contain RNA just like humans carry DNA in each cell. This RNA is a set of letter A,G,C and U, arranged in a unique sequence. Chinese scientists deciphered this unique sequence for Covid-19 in Jan (tinyurl.com/vfqms3h).