I have seen the table below being widely shared to falsely imply that deaths are no higher than normal this year
The table is both factually incorrect and misleading
Those who created it deliberately sow confusion and doubt
1/6
Firstly, a common approach used to manipulate statistics is the selective use of dates or time periods
In the table you can see that previous complete years are being compared to a partial year – only going up to week 45 of this year, which ended on 6 Nov
2/6
Secondly, having made it look like official numbers are being used, the wrong number is actually given
There had been 517k deaths registered by 6 Nov this year, not the 485k that are stated in the table
3/6
Thirdly, an out-of-date statistic continues to be used
We have now published data for deaths registered up to the end of week 49 (4 Dec this year). There have been 567k deaths so far
Figures from the corresponding period in previous years were 496k, 510k, 500k, 494k & 501k
4/6
Given current weekly numbers of deaths, we can sadly assume that there are likely to be over 600k deaths registered in E&W this year
There have only been 600k+ deaths registered in a single year once before – in 1918, the year of the “Spanish” flu pandemic
5/6
No’s are affected by population size & structure. As well as by health and public health. We came close to 600k deaths in the 1970s/80s. 10 yrs ago we were below 500k
This year we’re likely to see c.70k “excess” deaths above the 5-yr avg – the best measure to use
6/6 ENDS
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
For both the MSOA and LA maps you can select areas, months, and whether to include all deaths that occurred or only those where COVID was mentioned on death certs
2/n
London had the highest COVID-related age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) with 137.6 deaths per 100k persons (Mar-May)
This was significantly higher than any other region in Eng and more than a third higher than the region with the next highest rate (the NW)
This was another bank holiday (Mon 25 May) affected week
As a result, we expected to see a reduction in the number of deaths registered. We also hoped to see a drop in the % that deaths remained above the 5-yr weekly average
1/n
There were 9,824 deaths registered, 20% fewer than the week before
This was 1,653 “excess” deaths above the 5-yr weekly average
= 20% above what we’d expect in this week of the year, down from 24% above the week before
2/n
1,822 deaths mentioned COVID on death certificates, 19% of all deaths registered
As in the week before, this was 110% of the number of excess deaths i.e. slightly more
Deaths not mentioning COVID on death certs were slightly below the 5-yr weekly average
With the news agenda focused elsewhere today, here’s my summary
Caveat - where VE Day Bank Holiday register office closures reduced death regs in w/e 8 May, the subsequent catch up will have increased them in this reporting week
1/n
14,573 deaths registered - 1,916 higher than w/e 8 May and 4,385 (43%) higher than the 5-year weekly average
In the last 8 weeks 135,575 deaths have been regstd
“Excess” deaths above 5-yr av now total c.54k (E&W)
This rises to just under 60k excess deaths across the UK
2/n
3,810 deaths (26%) mentioned COVID on the death certificate this week
There have now been c.41k deaths involving COVID across E&W