Thread by @crampell

Undergraduate enrollment fell 3.6% this fall compared to a year earlier. Massive decline (10.1%) at community colleges, but an increase at private for-profits nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-e…

enrollment of first-time students down an "unprecedented" 13.1%. at community colleges, enrollment of first-time students plummeted an astounding 21% nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/upl…

graduate/professional enrollment is up though

Majors that saw biggest increase in enrollment YoY at 4-yr schools: psychology (6.9%), transportation & materials moving (6.9%), personal and culinary services (6.4%). Some other depts had growth too.
At 2-yr schools, though, psychology was the ONLY major with an increase (4.4%)

note that these numbers EXCLUDE any changes in enrollment of international students. Other sources show enormous declines in international enrollment this year nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/upl…

For example, IIE found that total international students at higher education institutions in the United States + studying online outside US (e.g., they stayed in their home countries, logged into online classes at US schools) decreased by 16% in fall 2020
iie.org/Research-and-I…

1st-time international students physically in the United States fell even more, judging from F-1 visa issuances. Likely related to consulate closures + ICE ruling that new students couldn't get visas if classes were online due to covid

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1319757858225987584

Relatedly, 84% of adults live in households where at least one adult was planning on taking post-secondary classes this fall, but had plans either canceled or changed in some significant way (class in different format, institution, change of program, etc.) census.gov/data-tools/dem…

Usually college-going is somewhat counter-cyclical -- people hide out in higher ed & upgrade their skills while the job market is poor. Not the case this year (at least for undergrad; grad/professional is up, as I noted), presumably because...

A) the college experience has changed due to covid; would-be students want to wait until in-person classes can resume.
B) composition of workers displaced by the covid recession may look different than in previous recessions

One question is how long-lasting the damage will be for schools. They took a huge financial hit this year; state budget problems probably mean public institutions could face further funding cuts. Then, tuition hikes to make up shortfall.

But economy could remain weak for a while after vaccine is introduced & college experience returns to normal. Maybe the usual countercyclical trend in enrollment will resume, and enrollments next fall will look better. At least at some schools.

Per LAT, applications from low-income students & those who are first in their families to attend college dropped by 7% among the 900-plus Common App schools. But selective privates and large publics saw applications increase by about 12% latimes.com/california/sto…