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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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21 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Bad take—this table shows the risk of HOSPITALIZATION by age versus comorbidity—1 comorbidity condition = 65+ elderly age.

Meanwhile, Nate’s figure was just death **if hospitalized**, a very narrow subset. Feel free to tell overwhelmed HCWs that merely 🏥 is no biggie.
2) Other fellow PhD epidemiologists like @AbdulElSayed also agree Nate’s analysis sucks.
3) Abdul has had it.
4) Causal analysis done by real epidemiologists is very different from brute force statistical prediction done by polling.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Dec
Welp—Pastor who told parishioners not to fear pandemic—parents then die of COVID after Thanksgiving.

🔥“I’m not wearing a mask—There will be no social distancing CDC. Faith over fear!”

➡️A few weeks later, both parents died of #COVID19 in Fort Worth 🏥.
dallasnews.com/news/public-he… Image
2) Pastor Todd Dunn had been preaching “Faith over fear!” since the COVID-19 pandemic started. Before Thanksgiving, he posted a message on Facebook dismissing precautionary measures by CDC to keep wearing masks and avoid gatherings w/ family members who don’t live in same house. Image
2) “Dunn, who is the pastor of 2nd Mile Church in north Fort Worth where his parents were members, admitted that he was surprised by the sudden surge in COVID cases in recent weeks in Tarrant County.”

.. SURPRISED THAT EPIDEMIOLOGISTS ARE RIGHT??? 🤦🏻‍♂️
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Dec
NOT EVEN REMOTELY TRUE:

Donald Trump Jr. claims “red states” had fewer #COVID19 transmissions than “blue states” due to “common sense.”

2) Which of these are red states and blue states again @DonaldJTrumpJr? Are my eyes kinda bloodshot or is it the figure just red? Image
3) I swear my eyes must be bleeding red or some reason @DonaldJTrumpJr. Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Dec
New York is vigorously trying to find the UK 🇬🇧 mutated variant in its samples. None found so far among 3700 virus samples sequenced for its genome. Good start. But lots to go. #COVID19 Image
2) Early data hints the new mutation affects kids more.
2) The data on mutation is worrisome.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
22 Dec
📍With looming vaccine shortage, Pfizer & Trump HHS cuts deal to obtain more critical supplies. ➡️But, Pfizer first started asking for Trump WH help in obtaining supplies as early as Sept—yet Pfizer was completely ignored by Trump WH for 3 months! #COVID19
nytimes.com/2020/12/22/us/… Image
2) “Moderna and other companies that worked more closely than Pfizer with the administration through its Operation Warp Speed to develop their vaccines already receive **favored treatment** from suppliers, putting Pfizer at a disadvantage”
3) “Pfizer & [WH] have been negotiating for more doses from Pfizer for more than a month. But a host of other issues have stood in the way, including Pfizer’s commitments to other nations that **moved faster than the US to lock in a big supply**, according to people familiar.” 🤦🏻‍♂️
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
22 Dec
Breaking—UK 🇬🇧 VARIANT MAPPED:

➡️We have now a detailed map of the likely spread of the VUI-202012/01 #SARSCoV2 variant among *63,000 positive #COVID19 cases throughout England*!

📌All thanks to a brilliant stroke of luck—allowing a *shortcut PCR test* instead of full 🧬test.🧵 Image
2) Long story short, there is a special PCR test used by Lighthouse labs that tests for 3 genes of #SARSCoV2. But new UK variant has a key Deletion at 69/70–this PCR only positive for 2 genes, but no longer records positive signal for mutated spike gene!

This gives a SHORTCUT 👀 Image
3) While some other variants also have the 69-70 deletion mutation, the VUI-202012/01 is the main variant that has it—97% of all viruses with the special spike deletion belong to the troublesome new strain. Hence we can use the “S Gene failure” as a proxy shortcut PCR test! HUGE! Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
22 Dec
Increased transmission of new UK 🇬🇧 variant among kids?

➡️Early analysis "hints a higher propensity to infect children", says Neil Ferguson of @MRC_Outbreak.

"If (proven) true, might explain significant proportion, maybe majority, of increase” #COVID19
bbc.com/news/uk-554069… Image
2) “Prof Wendy Barclay said the mutations to the virus appeared to be making it easier to walk through the doorways that were there.

She said this could be putting children on a "more level playing field" with adults as the virus was "less inhibited" in children.
3) “Therefore children are equally susceptible, perhaps, to this virus as adults, and therefore given their mixing patterns, you would expect to see more children being infected."

Work to understand the new variant is taking place at lightning speed—still much uncertainty.
Read 9 tweets

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