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Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
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21 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The best argument for transition extension was always that Covid would interfere with government and business preperations.

I wrote this in April, and it appears to be aging better than the hundreds of comments under it telling me to fuck off.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
Just in case you're paywalled or lazy:

The FTA negotiations are and we're the least significant argument for transition extension.

A deal could have been signed and ratified in July and I'd still suggest a transition extension to get business and government ready.
were*, obviously.
For clarity: An extension is very unlikely and supremely difficult NOW.

That's why I wrote that article 8 months ago, and not yesterday.

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More from @DmitryOpines

Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
18 Dec
1/ The EU calculation on fish is relatively simple and very cold blooded (sorry). The latest Barnier comments reflect that.

It wants access to UK waters for its vessels and is seeking to trade for it from a position of strength.

That strength is the threat of tariffs.
2/ The EU wants to avoid a future negotiation where it is seeking access to UK waters without the threat of tariffs in its arsenal.

That's why it wants fish included in this deal and why Barnier wants the ability to leverage tariffs if EU vessels are locked out in the future.
3/ The EU aren't stupid. If this deal locks in some access for 5 years and then goes to a bilateral negotiation untied to anything else, what does year 6 look like?

The Sun:
"PRIME MINISTER DARREN GRIMES TELLS EUROPIRATES NON FISH, NON WAY"

They want to retain leverage.
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
17 Dec
I know the media is eager to points score who 'won' or 'surrendered' on the final outstanding issues in this negotiation.

The fact is, regardless of who moves, where, and how far on fishing, governance and LPF, the final deal will be good for both the EU and UK. 🤷‍♂️
On fish, the worst case scenario for the UK is that the status quo is maintained in a tiny sector.

The worst case scenario for the EU is they'll have negotiate annually for access to UK waters on behalf of a tiny sector.
On LPF, the worst case scenario for the UK is that at some point in the future, their regulations fall so far behind the EU's that they lose some of the market access this deal secures.

For the EU, it's that in that hypothetical, they have fewer options.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
8 Dec
1/ If you want an insight into what being a trade negotiator is actually like, this is a pretty illustrative example.

EU Red Line: "EU staff need to be present and on the ground to monitor implementation."

UK Red Line: "No EU office in NI."

Compromise: 👇👇👇
2/ You can have personal views on the merits of those red-lines, but as negotiators that's not your role.

Once you've clearly explained your sides, fully understood theirs, and established to your satisfaction neither side is moving... your job is to invent space between them.
3/ Making EU officials hot-desk instead of having a building may not change much commercially or practically, but it achieves the EU objective of oversight while respecting the UK opposition to a permanent office presence.

It may sound silly, but it clearly worked. Go team.
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
2 Dec
1/ I don't think the EU assumes the UK will come begging them for an FTA in early 2021.

I think SOME in the EU think the UK will revert to something like its No-Deal tariffs from 2019, which would significantly lessen the tariff blow on EU producers.

gov.uk/government/new…
2/ As I've written before, the current slate of UK tariffs seems designed around assuming tariff-eliminating deal with the EU.

Without one, UK tariffs fall on a huge range of products like food which UK consumers want and currently source from the EU.

Bad for prices.
3/ In time, the UK might find non-EU suppliers either domestically, from developing countries it grants preferences to, or from FTA partners.

Alternatively, consumer preferences might shift.

That's long term though.

In the short term: price hikes. Unpopular ones.
Read 6 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
29 Nov
1/ When your least favorite uncle hits the sherry this holiday season and starts lecturing the family WhatsApp group about the EU trade surplus signaling their imminent surrender, I humbly suggest you counter... with phone books (Google what those are, Generation Z).
2/ Imagine you have in front of you two phone books.

The one on the left contains the names of every business in the UK that exports anything overseas.

The on the right contains the same for but for European Union firms.
3/ Now your sweaty uncle is right, the EU has about a 30% trade surplus with the United Kingdom.

That means we can (very crudely and purely illustratively) assume 30% more of the businesses in their book sell to the United Kingdom, than the other way around.

Point Richard.
Read 8 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
27 Nov
1/ It's Friday night. I'm drinking cider. Let's talk about end-of-negotiation dynamics between Chief Negotiators and Politicians...

... because they're kind of ridiculous.
2/ Just like the EU-UK FTA has right now, trade negotiation typically get to a point where they are 95% completed but stuck on the last 5%.

That's because the last 5% contains the issues on which the Chief Negotiators have instructions from leaders not to compromise. At all.
3/ This is always incredibly obvious in the negotiating room, and is often pretty bloody clear outside it.

Michel Barnier clearly doesn't have a mandate to say, "You know what, forget the fish let's just sign" and Frost isn't allowed to just OK the EU's LPF.

They have orders.
Read 9 tweets

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