Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ I don't think the EU assumes the UK will come begging them for an FTA in early 2021.

I think SOME in the EU think the UK will revert to something like its No-Deal tariffs from 2019, which would significantly lessen the tariff blow on EU producers.

gov.uk/government/new…

2/ As I've written before, the current slate of UK tariffs seems designed around assuming tariff-eliminating deal with the EU.

Without one, UK tariffs fall on a huge range of products like food which UK consumers want and currently source from the EU.

Bad for prices.

3/ In time, the UK might find non-EU suppliers either domestically, from developing countries it grants preferences to, or from FTA partners.

Alternatively, consumer preferences might shift.

That's long term though.

In the short term: price hikes. Unpopular ones.

4/ Note: This doesn't eliminate the cost for the EU of failing to reach an FTA.

Some tariffs would remain in place, and tariff elimination by the UK would open up EU producers to competition in the UK they were previously shielded from.

Plus, the cuts would be temporary.

5/ In summary, the hopes of the EU of weathering a failure to reach a deal with the UK likely rest more on their market size, what they currently sell to the UK, and the UK's ability to readily replace them, than on any illusion Boris will be begging for new talks by February.

6/ Addendum for nerds:

If you want to take a look at the EU tariffs, the UK's new tariffs and the UK's No-Deal tariffs side by side, I made this a while ago:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…