Nate Cohn Profile picture
21 Dec, 11 tweets, 3 min read
A lot for Democrats to like in the early voting data over the last few days, as they are now running ahead of where they stood at a similar point of the general election--thanks to a stronger Black turnout
The Black share of in-person early voters was basically identical to the general election over the first few days of voting, but that began to diverge late last week--and even more so over the weekend, which is typically a strong period for Black turnout in Georgia
As most of you know, the Black turnout in Georgia (and nationwide) was relatively weak v. other groups in the general election. That's been a matter of some consternation for progressives who wish it weren't so, but it's also the big source of upside for Democrats in this runoff
At the moment, the higher Black share of in person early voting is enough to cancel out the smaller share of mail-in absentee voters, who were overwhelmingly Democratic in the general--giving Democrats, in my view, a slightly more favorable electorate at this stage of voting
Looking ahead, we're about to lose a certain amount of clarity in our day-by-day comparison, since the holidays will dampen (and outright eliminate) turnout on GOP-friendly days. We'll probably watch the Dems expand their lead v. the general, and then the GOP try and claw it back
At this stage of early voting, we also now have a new tool for analyzing the vote: our NYT/Siena data, linked to absentee records. We now have 384 respondents who have voted early, which can help us untangle ways that these voters are unique, controlling for demographics/method
It can also help us synthesize some of the conflicting bits of info (what wins out if you have an older electorate v. a slightly more diverse electorate, etc.; lower absentee voting but no change in dem pct, etc.)
Over all, NYT/Siena respondents who have voted early in the runoff are Biden 57, Trump 35 in Sept/Oct., which is about the same as our respondents who voted early by this point of the general election
Using this data and the voter file, our estimate is that the voters who have turned out so far would have voted essentially identically to the same point in the general election (Biden 59.4 v. 59.3), despite all the various demographic shifts and changes in vote method
Democrats are now doing notably better in in-person voting, with Biden winning an estimated 57% of in-person early vote v. 53.5 percent at this stage of the general election. But absentee voters represent a lower share of the vote to all but perfectly cancel it out
Of course, in the end the Democrats will probably need to do better in advanced voting than they did in the general, simply to makeup for their deficit in the general. And even then, election day could be more GOP to cancel it out

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Nate_Cohn

18 Dec
Another day of strong early voting in Georgia, with another 154k voters turning out in person yesterday. That's similar to but slightly behind the fourth day of early voting in the general, which was at 164k
Cumulatively, we're still running ahead of the general election on in-person early voting, but I don't think anyone expects that to last--and there's a very long time left for that flip to happen
As I've said, the big takeaway is that the turnout looks like it will be healthy and high, and it's not obvious who it will help v. the general. As I've mentioned, there are crosscutting patterns at play that make it difficult to sort out where we'll end up. Let's look at a few
Read 11 tweets
17 Dec
Early voting is still proceeding at a brisk pace in the Georgia runoff, where nearly 150k voted yesterday--a hair above the third day of early voting in 2020 general
Yesterday was also the first day where the Democratic share of in-person early voters, as defined by partisan vote history, was better for them than it was in the general
(dark line = runoff; light = general)
That said, it's possible they might well need to beat out their early voting numbers from the general to compensate for a dropoff in the number of absentee voters, who are far more Democratic
Read 6 tweets
16 Dec
Another big day of early voting in Georgia: 167k voted yesterday, about the same as Monday and up from 129k on the second day of early voting in October
No, I don't think this augurs for a higher turnout in the general--at least not yet. 98% of these voters turned out in the general--as long as that's true, this level of voting (with respect to the general) won't be sustainable
Demographically, yesterday's voters were a lot like the second day of early voters in the general--which was also true of day one's voters.
And also like day one, yesterday's turnout was at once much higher than the general and a tad more Republican than the same day.
Read 10 tweets
15 Dec
Let's dive into some of these numbers. One important bit of context: day one of early voting is not usually representative, it's usually quite good for Democrats
In the general election, for example, our estimate was that Biden won the first two days of early voting, three of the four weekend days, and Trump won basically every other day of early voting
Yesterday's voters were, again, quite Democratic. By our measure of party primary history, it was Dem 47, Rep 36-- about the same or perhaps a little better for the GOP than day one of the general, which was Dem 49, Rep 34. Racial demographics quite similar too
Read 5 tweets
14 Dec
Good morning everyone, happy start of in-person early voting for Georgia Senate runoffs day
We already have a lot of data in GA: more than 1.2 million absentee ballot requests, including 260k votes.
It's hard to read too much into the data, but on balance it's hard to say that it augurs for a vastly different electorate than the general (in terms of partisanship)
It's hard to read too much into the data because voters didn't exactly have an equal opportunity to request absentee ballots for the runoff and the general election. The general election was coming all year; the runoff and its significance only became evident a month ago
Read 10 tweets
12 Dec
Indeed, and so it's worth circling back on an element of the post-election discussion about Latino voters: the refrain that it's a heterogeneous group (which is undoubtedly true)
Every major demographic group is heterogeneous. Many frequently analyzed demographic groups, like women or young voters include people of every educational, racial or regional strata
Even racially/educationally homogenous groups (say, white working class voters) include huge variation: white no college voters in Mississippi and Vermont have... very little in common
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!