Thread by @NickStripe_ONS

THREAD – mortality rates

The linked thread addressed fake ONS stats that were circulating

As I made clear in the final tweet, the number of deaths is affected by population size/structure and much more

Thanks for the comments. Some thoughts on rates and context…

1/11

https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1340411440117800960

The very best place to start for full context is this report on how our population has changed since 1900

Our population – Where are we? How did we get here? Where are we going?

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

I co-authored it and we published in Mar, which seems a lifetime ago

2/11

Although the no. of deaths registered this year will be similar to 1918, the population is much different – bigger and older

The country is totally different too. Better sanitation & living conditions, antibiotics & universal healthcare, welfare support etc etc

3/11

For example, at the start of the 20th century, 14% of babies born did not survive beyond their first birthday

We clearly don’t want to return to those times, so how best to contextualise the numbers of deaths we’re currently experiencing?

4/11

Crude mortality rates (deaths/popn) are one measure. But the population structure (e.g. by age) changes over time, so better to use age-standardised mortality rates

We regularly produce these and will do so for 2020 as a whole once all the data is with us and fully assured

5/11

Mortality rates have improved hugely over time, although in the last 10 yrs long-term improvements started to slow down and even reverse in more deprived areas

There will be a significant jump in mortality rates this year. Potentially 10-15% higher

6/11

But how to account for all the other changes to our society and the way we live (eg. less smoking) etc?

Very difficult to do. The best proxy is to look at what’s happening in light of the most recent context. That’s why we consider excess deaths in terms of the last 5 yrs

7/11

So, E&W is likely to have c.70k excess deaths this year

That is likely to see a 10-15% jump in the crude mortality rate compared to the 5-yr avg

But maybe <10% jump in the age-standardised rate, due to the average age of those dying from CV19

8/11

Some may say, “is that all?”

Remember, these are not just numbers. Real people are ill and dying. Family and friends are worrying and grieving

What would we have thought about this at the start of the year? Or when we saw what was first happening in Italy?

9/11

In terms of the no’s, such increases in mortality rates would be the equivalent of reversing all the gains of the last 10-20 yrs, depending on which rate is used

Excess deaths this year as a % of population could be at their highest level since 1940 - thx @MattWalls99

10/11

And it’s within the context of the personal and societal measures we’ve taken to limit the spread of CV19

Whatever your views on those, when CV gets out of control the health service has to focus on it, deaths rise, our health and economy suffer

The virus is the enemy

11/11

Finally, apologies - ideally I’d do all the latest sums and cut and paste relevant charts, but I’ve got a thumping headache

You want to avoid Long COVID too ☹️

All data is publicly available and we will publish full annual reports next year. Do read the report in tweet 2

ENDS