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Christina Pagel Profile picture
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21 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
TINY THREAD: Tier 4, potential Tier 4, Covid Spread in two plots.

Takeaway - Tier 4 is surrounded by Tier 2 areas - those Tier 2 areas are rising much faster than Tier 2 areas further away from Tier 4. Govt must act now. 1/4
Firstly, just looking at weekly cases per 100,000 people within each of the (current) tiers you can see that Tier 4 dipped much less in lockdown, started rising just before and is accelerating faster than the NE and NW ever did. Only Tier 3 is sort of stable. 2/4
Secondly, if we look at Tier 2 areas in regions near Tier 4 (East, SE, E Mid) they are now *also* rising much faster than Tier 2 areas in regions that are further away (NW, NE, Yorks, SW, W Mids). 3/4
This might not be because of a new strain - *but* it is all certainly consistent with there being a highly transmissable new strain. Govt *must act now* & not wait for this worsening situation to get even worse. 4/4
PS all data are "specimen date" (date someone took a test). This means these charts only go up to 16th December because most recent days data will still be filtering in over next few days.

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More from @chrischirp

Christina Pagel Profile picture
18 Dec
CHRISTMAS THREAD: In today's @independentsage briefing @SusanMichie took us through this incredibly helpful 10-point plan from SAGE Spi-B, which she co-wrote. Here are the key points!! 1/5
The safest way to meet is online or outdoors... this remains the most important principle. 2/5
Whether you decide to meet inside, outside or not at all, every household should make a plan together - so that everyone knows what is happening and to prevent misunderstandings, hurt feelings, arguments... 3/5
Read 6 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
4 Dec
THREAD: where are we with Covid in the UK?

Read on and find out... (16.5 tweets)

TLDR: Everything mostly going in right direction, but caution needed and some warning signs on horizon...

@IndependentSage
Firstly, cases are continuing to come down in Scotland, NI and England. This is good. Welsh cases have gone up a bit over last 2 weeks tho, a few weeks after their firebreak ended, since when they've had fewest restrictions in UK.

Note that...
...Some of increase is cos Wales is testing more (GOOD) but some is more transmission, as seen in recent (small) increase in positivity rates from case data *and* ONS infection survey.

Coming out of restrictions is hard, & Wales adding some tonight. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
Read 17 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
28 Nov
THREAD on new tiers & some perspective:

Lots of discussion over fairness of tier allocation and "balance" between economy and lives.

Let's remember where we were a few months ago...
Over the summer we were average about 10 new cases / 100K people / week. Quarantine from foreign destinations was triggered if they were above 20/100K cases. The *lowest* area in mainland England right now is at 59/100K (Cornwall). Almost everywhere is over 100/100K.
The rule of 6 was brought in across England on 14th September. Manchester went into tough restrictons on 16th Sept with case rate of 100/100K. From September to November the govt was trying to "balance" the economy and lives - against scientific advice to lockdown.
Read 8 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
16 Nov
THREAD: In this piece for @IanDunt 4 weeks ago, I wrote about the "relentless doubling" of Covid deaths in England & that any new measures would not prevent deaths over the coming 4 weeks because they would mostly be among people who already had Covid. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
Given that relentless doubling of deaths, I wrote "It's likely 2,000 people will die over the next two weeks and 4,000 the two weeks after that.". Sadly, it was even worse. 2,553 died in the two weeks to 1st Nov & 4,328 have died over the last 2 weeks... (coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths)
A Sept 21st circuit break as recommended by SAGE could have prevented many of those deaths. I am v glad we started lockdown on 5th November but it was NOT soon enough to help the thousands who will die over the next 2 weeks. It also won't be as effective after missing half term.
Read 6 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
6 Nov
THREAD: quick look at how some European countries are doing & what we can learn from restrictions... NB there are general "work from home" advisories in all countries, but not clear how much people are. Slight differences in mixing rules. Thanks to @lmortshepherd for the charts!
1. Netherlands - cases went up rapidly from Sept & they tried regional curfews on bars & restaurants. These became national curfews but cases kept going up. Partial lockdown (schools + uni open) started mid October. 2 weeks later cases peaked and are now reducing. Image
2. France - Again cases started rising in Set and regional bar & restaurant closures were tried. Then national curfews. These were not stopping the spread and lockdown started a week ago - schools open. Today they had another record case day but early days. Image
Read 6 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
5 Nov
THREAD: on lockdowns, mitigation, herd immunity strategies. I have a *lot* of problems with this article by Lord Sumption in the Guardian today - so I've decided to do a thread on them. amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
1. Just going to start by saying that no one thinks lockdowns are a good thing and everyone agrees they have serious & bad consequences. They are a last resort measure. I agree with Lord Sumption that they should be avoided if at all possible! But that is about all we agree on!
2. He starts off by saying "Suppose there is nothing that governments can do to stop the spread of Covid-19. What then?". That's his premise. But many countries have shown there ARE things you can do to stop spread. China, S Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, NZ, Uruguay...
Read 23 tweets

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