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@Millenarian22

21 Dec

Many people have already made this map, but I felt I had to make a 2016-2020 Swing map as well. Voting patterns were mostly stable, with 74% of counties having a swing of less than 5 pts towards either party from 2016. There were big shifts in areas like the RGV & Atlanta Suburbs

The national popular vote shifted 2.4 pts towards the Democrats (from Clinton +2.1 to Biden +4.5). If we map county changes RELATIVE to that national swing it flips many rural counties from blue to red, meaning that they swung Biden, but by less than the nation's 2.4 pt swing:

@cinyc9

The biggest swing towards the Democrats may have been in Skagway Municipality, Alaska, which went from an estimated 53-28 Clinton in 2016 to 71-23 Biden in 2020, a 23 pt swing. However, these numbers are estimates, thanks to @cinyc9 who calculated them:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1335728238849568768

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Mill✨🤝

@Millenarian22

29 Nov

Map of the 100 year swing from the 1920 to 2020 Presidential Elections. In 1920, Harding (R) won a 26 pt landslide, currently Biden (D) is winning by 4 pts, so nationally there was a 30 pt Dem swing over 100 years. GOP gained in most of the South, Dems on the WestCoast/Midwest/NE

Here is the same map in "Trend" form, so county changes are RELATIVE to the large 30 pt Democratic swing nationally. Most urban areas outside the South trended Dem over the past century, while most rural areas have trended GOP, with a few exceptions on the West Coast/Midwest/NE:

Here are the actual county maps from 1920 & 2020 (maps from Wikipedia). In 1920 almost all the counties won by Cox (D) were in the South, while in 2020 Biden won pockets/stretches of counties in all different regions of the country, with most rural counties going to Trump.

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Mill✨🤝

@Millenarian22

28 Nov

Swing from the 1912 to 1916 elections. Woodrow Wilson (D) was elected in 1912 in a 4-way race, beating Taft (R) by 19 pts (only beat Teddy Roosevelt, who ran as a Progressive, by 14 pts, but this map is looking at the change in the D-R margin) then was re-elected in 1916 by 3 pts

Here is the same map in "trend" form, so changes are RELATIVE to the 15.5 pt swing towards the GOP in the national vote. The South & most of the West trended towards Wilson, tho in CA many voters who had went for TR in 1912 returned to the GOP in 1916, as did many Midwesterners:

Here are the actual 1912 & 1916 election by county. 1912 was very chaotic, with Roosevelt (Progressive, green) winning many counties & even a few counties being won by Eugene Debs (Socialist, orange). Most of the counties won by Roosevelt went back to the GOP & Hughes (R) in 1916

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Mill✨🤝

@Millenarian22

27 Nov

Thread on the Exodusters, a group of African-American refugees who fled the end of Reconstruction in the South & moved to the "Promised Land" of Kansas in 1879 & 1880. They contributed to an increase in the African-American population of KS from 17,108 in 1870 to 43,107 in 1880:

Despite the increase of 25,999 African-Americans in KS, the % of the KS population that was African-American actually fell slightly, from 4.7% in 1870 to only 4.3% in 1880. This was because the White population of KS absolutely exploded, from 346,377 in 1870 to 952,155 in 1880!:

Many Exodusters migrated from Louisiana, where political violence was unbearable in the aftermath of the Compromise of 1877. Federal troops had been withdrawn, & paramilitary groups like the "White League" were attacking the Black population & suppressing the vote with impunity:

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Mill✨🤝

@Millenarian22

8 Nov

#ElectionTwitter Thread: Map of the county swing from the 1936 to 1940 Presidential Elections. FDR was running for an unprecedented 3rd term & did 14.3 pts worse than in 1936, with big losses in heavily German-American areas like the Midwest & Great Plains, in the run-up to WW2:

Here's the same map in Trend form, so county swings are relative to the 14 pt national swing towards the GOP. Much of the NE & South trended towards FDR. Along with German-Americans, FDR had defections from some Italian & Irish voters, contributing to losses in urban areas (NYC):

Maps of the actual 1936 & 1940 elections from Wikipedia. GOP nominee Alf Landon had been blown out by FDR in 1936, only winning a smattering of counties across the country, but Wendell Wilkie was much more competitive in 1940, winning wide swathes of the rural heartland of the US

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Mill✨🤝

@Millenarian22

7 Nov

Got lost in the shuffle a bit, but Trump ended up winning the single Electoral Vote from Maine's 2nd District pretty easily, by 7.9 pts! He won it by 10.3 pts in 2016, so Biden gained 2.4 pts. Maine as a whole went from a 2.9 pt Clinton win to a 10.1 pt Biden win, a 7.2 pt swing.

FiveThirtyEight had Biden actually favored to carry the district, with 7 of the last 8 polls favoring Biden, so this was one of the biggest misses of the cycle. Their overall Maine forecast wasn't far off though, projecting an 11.8 pt Biden win in Maine vs the actual 10.1 pt win.

On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight actually UNDERESTIMATED Biden in the 1st District of ME, thinking he would win by only 21 pts while he is currently leading by 22.7 pts. This pattern mirrors the nation: Biden was underestimated in blue areas like CA & overestimated in red areas

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