1/ Striking, contrasting new findings on Indian govt.'s "New Welfarism" with broader lessons for pol. economy of development & for democratic politics
1. Big gains on New Welfarism, namely, access to essential goods/services
2. But reversal of gains on child stunting
1. Big gains on New Welfarism, namely, access to essential goods/services
2. But reversal of gains on child stunting
2/ Piece @IndianExpress by @vksdimble @abhishekecon & me based on our analysis of first round of new National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
3/ What's New Welfarism (NW)?
Distinctive, conscious redistribution/inclusion policy:
not prioritizing basic health/education
ambivalence on safety net
Instead, subsidized *govt.* provision of essential *private* goods/services: bank a/cs, toilets, power, fuel, housing, water
Distinctive, conscious redistribution/inclusion policy:
not prioritizing basic health/education
ambivalence on safety net
Instead, subsidized *govt.* provision of essential *private* goods/services: bank a/cs, toilets, power, fuel, housing, water
4/ Finding 1
From 2015, big gains in households' access to essentials, targeted under specific programs
Levels of access at historic high (60%-95%)
Pace accelerated sharply under Modi govt.
Gains marked in rural India & for women's financial inclusion
From 2015, big gains in households' access to essentials, targeted under specific programs
Levels of access at historic high (60%-95%)
Pace accelerated sharply under Modi govt.
Gains marked in rural India & for women's financial inclusion
5/ Finding 2
But stunting of children-already high by global norms in 2015-has gone up, reversing progress over a decade
So, not stalled progress but retrogression
But stunting of children-already high by global norms in 2015-has gone up, reversing progress over a decade
So, not stalled progress but retrogression
6/ Pol. economy: Why progress on NW, setback on stunting?
NW backed by Conviction (imp. for lives of poor) AND
Calculation: Target tangibles that are easy to deliver, measure & monitor AND ensure attribution to govt./benefactor
Less easy to do for child nutrition/stunting
NW backed by Conviction (imp. for lives of poor) AND
Calculation: Target tangibles that are easy to deliver, measure & monitor AND ensure attribution to govt./benefactor
Less easy to do for child nutrition/stunting
7/ Pol. economy: Why progress on NW, setback on stunting?
Child nutrition requires time to deliver; related to social norms; & poorer households having more incomes
Findings on stunting outcomes at odds w/ narrative of rapid growing economy, pre-Covid: hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/pu…
Child nutrition requires time to deliver; related to social norms; & poorer households having more incomes
Findings on stunting outcomes at odds w/ narrative of rapid growing economy, pre-Covid: hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/pu…
8/ Broader global trend in democratic politics?
New recipe for electoral success (also Turkey/Hungary/Poland)
-leverage identity politics of right
-embrace tepidly market-reform of center
-appropriate redistributive economics of left (distinctively in India-New Welfarism)
New recipe for electoral success (also Turkey/Hungary/Poland)
-leverage identity politics of right
-embrace tepidly market-reform of center
-appropriate redistributive economics of left (distinctively in India-New Welfarism)
n/ Data and details of findings here: drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
pdf version of @IndianExpress piece here: drive.google.com/file/d/1FCfy-l…
pdf version of @IndianExpress piece here: drive.google.com/file/d/1FCfy-l…
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